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I know I wouldn't trust us either, but I do wonder what chances we have to negotiate if and when trump and republican are not president again. I feel like these last 10 years have permanently damaged any reason for anyone to listen but i do hope the wars can stop.
Between Trumps first and second terms, he has demonstrated the issue with any long term deal Iran might make with the US. Under Obama, Iran had agreed to international inspections and a general framework that would have ensured that they followed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (of which they are a signatory). Trump rolled up in 2017 and tossed that out the window. And now Trump has decided to further destroy any credibility the US had left by dropping bombs. I doubt there is any world left where the Iranian Government trusts the US Government. I'd expect them to go more the North Korea route, isolate themselves further and make a sprint for nuclear weapons. They will have to content themselves with being part of the BRICS system. But a nuclear umbrella, with a high likelihood of nuking Tel Aviv, seems the only way to ensure the US/Israel aren't randomly lobbing bombs at them.
This depends on their production capabilities but they may not even need the nukes per se. If they can burn through US and Israeli AA munitions they may be able to simply bombard US bases and Israel until maintaining war is effectively impossible.
For quick context the US builds about 600 patriot missiles per year, the Iranians have already destroyed 800. Their chaf drones and missiles are rather effective against American equipment, but then again they've had 50 years to prepare.
Ya, the defense economics of a $50k Shahead drone being taken out by a $4 milion Patriot missile do not work in the defenders' favor. If Iran can keep that up long enough, those conventional weapons will start slipping through. Still, this was a known factor with Trump and Bibi's war and I don't think a bunch of civilians getting killed in drone attacks was a significant deterrent (QED, that war is going forward). While I believe that could result in the US/Israel making some propaganda declaration of victory and quietly ending the war, I don't think it would ever be a deterrent in the future. That's why I would expect Iran to want nukes. If they want to ensure that the US and Israel don't just randomly drop bombs on Iran when a US leader needs a distraction, they need a credible threat of Israeli cities disappearing in a mushroom cloud. That's something that couldn't just be ignored.
That's a reasonable play now, but it does nothing to ensure this won't happen again. The US has the industrial capacity to ramp that 600 to 6000 if need be.
And between those two events Biden kept Trump's sanctions while demanding they unilaterally returned to the agreement, along a host of other mistakes/"mistakes." It's not like America would become trustworthy if a blue war hawk was president rather than a red war hawk.
A ceasefire will eventually happen (hopefully sooner than later if we have no intention of trying to help clean things up).
But all signs are that this, like the last Iranian regime, isn't one we really want to be negotiating with. fuckface is a monster and this entire war is about the epstein files and whatever netanyahu is up to right now. But leading into this? Iran was abducting (likely murdering) protesters by the thousands and that isn't even all that out of the ordinary for them.
Iran is a lot more like North Korea where you don't really negotiate or engage in diplomacy so much as you try to ignore each other because nobody is willing to do anything about the human rights abuse.
And considering frigging Poland is talking about getting nukes? There isn't even much point in making concessions to prevent retaliation for the next war.