A Boring Dystopia

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Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader (www.npr.org)

submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by CurlyWurlies4All@slrpnk.net to c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world

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An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.

....Under U.S. commodity trading laws, making trades based on death and war are illegal, since those kinds of bets create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.

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[–] suddenlyme@lemmy.zip 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

How do they know ahead they were going to get him?

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

For this stuff?

It's almost certainly someone from the trump admin.

They placed two bets for 200k each right before it happened, the second time on a very short deadline.

It's not just that someone is making money off of it, it's that this is the new "guy outside a pizza shop".

Foreign intelligence agents are already 100% watching for these large bets, and whoever is running the site has a shit ton of info and almost certainly has been hacked by at least one government to find out who's who so accounts can be monitored.

Like, you think gambling addicts over on /wallstreetbets haven't figured this out yet?

Our shit is sloppy as fuck, and we just painted a giant target on our foreheads for pretty much every major terrorist cell.