A Boring Dystopia

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Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader (www.npr.org)

submitted 3 days ago* (last edited 3 days ago) by CurlyWurlies4All@slrpnk.net to c/aboringdystopia@lemmy.world

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An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market Polymarket that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, would be out of power just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday.

....Under U.S. commodity trading laws, making trades based on death and war are illegal, since those kinds of bets create a financial reward for violence, human suffering and geopolitical instability.

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[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 58 points 3 days ago (2 children)

What's crazy is people bet on it without insider info, knowing that people with it can.

Some comedian made a joke about it because he read off a bunch of random words that had bets on if they were said. They all paid out because he said them

The point is for any given bet a bunch of people can either make it happen or know the result before the market adjusts to the public knowing.

It's like how early scam emails used bad grammer so only dumb people responded, if you bet on poly market, you're already a lick.

Ironically enough this is also how our entire economy is run, just not as obviously...

[–] justsomeguy@lemmy.world 15 points 2 days ago

Gambling ads go brrrrrr.

A good third of the population simply don't have the cognitive capabilities to understand these things and if they're not protected by regulation they'll always fall for some form of scam.

[–] suddenlyme@lemmy.zip 1 points 2 days ago (1 children)

How do they know ahead they were going to get him?

[–] givesomefucks@lemmy.world 4 points 2 days ago

For this stuff?

It's almost certainly someone from the trump admin.

They placed two bets for 200k each right before it happened, the second time on a very short deadline.

It's not just that someone is making money off of it, it's that this is the new "guy outside a pizza shop".

Foreign intelligence agents are already 100% watching for these large bets, and whoever is running the site has a shit ton of info and almost certainly has been hacked by at least one government to find out who's who so accounts can be monitored.

Like, you think gambling addicts over on /wallstreetbets haven't figured this out yet?

Our shit is sloppy as fuck, and we just painted a giant target on our foreheads for pretty much every major terrorist cell.