this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2026
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TechTakes
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Big brain tech dude got yet another clueless take over at HackerNews etc? Here's the place to vent. Orange site, VC foolishness, all welcome.
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But if both are going to get obliterated in the next five years then the hedge is to buy like, govt bonds. It doesn't matter if your fund goes down -20% when the entire market went -40%, you're still losing to the guy who kept his cash under his mattress.
That depends, remember that you are losing five years of growth and dividends and if you are are a wise investor every year or so you sell some of what is doing best and buy some of what has been doing worst to lock in your gains. Also remember that you have to buy back in to gain anything from that crash, and its really hard to buy stocks when the market has just lost half its value. Most people who 'successfully predict a recession' sell too early and buy back too late so are not very far ahead.
But if you really believe that the US economy will crash by say the end of 2027, you think other assets will do better, and there are ways to buy them.
The USA is about 60% of the global stock market by market capitalization. Right now its much less than 60% of my stock holdings.