this post was submitted on 23 Feb 2026
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Image is of a Quds Day march in Bandar Abbas, Iran.


It now seems likely that, very soon, the US and the Zionists will attempt to bomb Iran. Compared to the buildup to the Iraq War, the stated goals of such a move are being kept a little more generalized - some say the point is to overthrow the government for "humanitarian" purposes (others are more honest and want to partition Iran into a dozen powerless statelets). Some people instead say the point is to get rid of the ballistic missile program, which is synonymous with outright surrender, as no matter the deal, bombers would be en route within 10 minutes of the last batch being handed over.

Still others say that the goal is to destroy the Iranian nuclear program, which, as the thread title implies, is now in a bizarre propaganda superposition: it is apparently simultaneously true to the Trump administration that the US obliterated the nuclear facilities and set back Iran's nuclear program years, if not decades, but also that Iran is mere days away from finishing a nuke and a new round of bombing is urgently required. This obviously casts newfound doubts on how effective US weapons even are at penetrating Iran's underground facilities (though it doesn't necessarily mean they didn't breach them, as Iran was almost certainly moving nuclear material out of Fordow and other sites in the days before the Twelve Day War). The sheer quantity of US anti-air defense equipment they're shifting into position also casts doubts on whether Iran's air defense was mostly destroyed during that conflict, as those who assert that the Zionists had total air supremacy over Iran seem to be implying.

I'm not a military guy, and so I have no novel insights on how such a war is likely to go, nor do I feel confident predicting either side's victory. I'm looking at most of the same sources that you're all looking at. Some confidently boast of the total destruction of Iran's air defense within hours, allowing US planes to fly directly over Iranian cities and drop bombs en masse; others cast doubts on whether this will ever occur, and say that the US's limited supply of Tomahawk missiles is the only major firepower they will be able to safely unleash. Some say this war will last mere days before state collapse; others say months, maybe even years. I have no idea.

I do at least feel somewhat bolstered by the fact that Russia and China finally appear to be pouring in meaningful information and matériel to help Iran this time around, though of course, one can still debate whether it's enough. I feel like we are at the culmination of decades of war planning by both the US and Iran, and the result could have deep ramifications indeed.


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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

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Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.

Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.

Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:

Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.

https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.

Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:

Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.


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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 50 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (3 children)

He's a neolib thru and thru, he wants to win as cheaply as possible without pissing off the US

I mean, this isn't necessarily neoliberalism, it's perfectly in line with Soviet doctrine, which Russia is obviously an inheritor of. In at attritional conflict, not unnecessarily expending men and resources is kind of a core concept.

People pointed out the whole "it's dragged on for longer than the Eastern Front in WW2" thing some weeks ago, but that was a fundamentally different situation - in the 1st phase, the Soviets were in a rush to liberate their territories on account of them fighting an openly genocidal foe, so every moment spent under occupation more death and suffering being inflicted upon their population. Here, Russia did actually take a lot of the separatist territories quickly at the opening of the war, and while still some Russian-speaking populations remained, it wasn't necessarily strategically tenable to go further (which happened back in WW2 as well, like with the Soviets not rushing in to aid the Warsaw Uprising, something Poles are still mad about and try to paint as some deliberate Soviet conspiracy to let the them get killed off rather than the simple strategic reality that Soviet troops couldn't have really sustained an offensive into Warsaw), and, as infested with neo-nazis as Ukraine may be, they're still not carrying out brutality anywhere near the scale of the Nazis in WW2. In the 2nd phase in WW2, even after pre-war Soviet territories were liberated, the rush continued for different reasons, now to determine the split of spheres of influence in post-war Europe, which obviously isn't applicable to a Ukraine that's not simultaneously being invaded from the other direction by another party (and with Russia not really having an interest in occupying any Ukrainian territories outside of the separatist oblasts).

Soviet planning in the Cold War also placed an emphasis on speed, because the specifics of that situation also facilitated it - the US obviously didn't have its entirely army deployed in Europe, so it would need to send reinforcements by sea, which would take time, so it was in the Soviets' interest to seize as much continental territory as possible before the US was able to bring their full might to bear there. And in the event of a quick victory not panning out, the Soviets were well prepared to switch to a more long-term attritional mode of war. So, absent extenuating factors forcing a rush, Soviet doctrine is perfectly fine with slowly grinding the enemy to dust over the course of several years.


In Ukraine's case, the Russian objective, as openly stated seventy million times (and ignored, because Westerners, with their brains broken by decades of wars launched on false pretenses, can't grasp the idea of a country actually just openly declaring what they're doing and why, there obviously must be a scheme behind it), is the demilitarization of Ukraine - and if that end cannot be achieved politically, through some kind of treaty... well, you know what Clausewitz says. The only thing that's left it to simply destroy enough military equipment and kill enough Ukrainian soldiers that the Ukrainian military simply ceases to be an effective fighting force. That is not something achievable quickly - I've spoken about this before, but a useful framework here is to compare WW2 with the US invasion of Iraq. The aftermath of WW2 did not see some great insurgency fought by the Nazis, despite them obviously having a lot of fanatical guys - why? Well, because all of those guys were either dead, injured, or captured - a long, brutal, attritional war had actually destroyed the German military (and a bunch of those captured guys would, later, after being freed, form the nucleus of the new Bundeswehr - if WW2 had been even more brutal, with the Nazis on the Western Front fighting more like they did on the Eastern one, a lot more often to the death rather than surrendering, and without Dönitz giving up, aside from the territorial split of Germany ending up rather different, the militaries of the post-war Germanies might not have had all that many men left to actually serve in them in the early years - see this graphic by the Federal Statistical Office and imagine an even bigger demographic hole). In Iraq conversely, the lightning-fast war fought by the Coalition, while it did destroy a lot of equipment, didn't kill all that many actual Iraqi soldiers - and with the post-war management of the occupation being completely bungled, there were now a whole bunch of pissed off former army men, who also got their hands on a ton of weaponry and explosives because the invasion was so lightning fast that Coalition forces kind of forgot to secure various military bases and storages and simply let the population pilfer them.

A fast Russian victory in Ukraine throws them into their own Iraq counter-insurgency scenario. The war is instead on the trajectory towards the WW2 outcome - of, by the end, a substantial proportion of Ukrainian soldiers being either dead, crippled, or imprisoned, but this time without there being a Western Allies equivalent here to "save" part of the Ukrainian army by capturing them and unleashing them on the Russians later (if anything, the surviving Ukrainian Nazis might well end up causing more trouble for the West). And with demographic trends across the world being what they are, an Ukrainian recovery anywhere in the near future isn't happening, and the possibility of Ukraine posing a future strategic threat is lessened.

Certainly, the Russians would have liked to do this one quickly - that's why they've been constantly banging the drum of negotiations (and, if they do win via the military option, having a failed state Ukraine next to them with most of its remaining male population being traumatized and likely otherwise disabled war veterans isn't exactly optimal). But, with Ukrainians approaching negotiations deeply unseriously, and the West continuing to whine about how unreasonable Russian demands are, that fell away as an option.


so instead of billions poured into R&D to overcome Ukrainian/US drone and electronic warfare

This is tech-brain-poisoned thinking, assuming that if you just pour enough money in there is some magical technology waiting to be uncovered which will solve your problems. Ukraine doesn't have some magical technological advantage in drones - rather, they've openly shown that they use civilian apartments as workshops for drone production. The "innovation" that Russians would need to implement would be to raze every apartment block in the country. Larger-scale industrial production (the one that can't be hidden away in civilian homes) in Ukraine has indeed been heavily damaged - but with military aid, the actual industry producing most of Ukraine's stuff isn't in Ukraine. There is no technological solution to this problem either - the "innovation" is to start WW3 and bomb every Western country's industrial centers. The actual major technological advantage Ukrainians have is access to Western ISR - and again, there is no magical solution here, some perfect jammer that can be developed to nullify that - the "innovation" is to start shooting Western satellites out of the sky, and that just brings us back to the "start WW3" scenario.

The main thing that Russia could perhaps be doing more of is fighting a hybrid war of its own, using secret means and proxies against the West - and while Western propaganda outlets say that this is totally happening, we can't actually know for sure the scale of it. All those factory accidents that have been happening all over the West - could they have actually been done by Russian intelligence? Maybe. Or maybe it's just that trying to suddenly scale up production leads to workers doing double shifts and making more mistakes due to fatigue, with some of those mistakes blowing their factories up. It happens catgirl-flop

idiosyncratic advances based on whatever insight an individual Russian division happened to stumble upon

Advances happen precisely because of the "pounding artillery duels and building attritional losses"! It is the attrition which has left Ukrainian forces spread thin, with positions manned by literally a handful of guys, that allow Russian soldiers to occasionally make large advances after they poke an Ukrainian position and it reenacts this gif from the Simpsons

[–] miz@hexbear.net 17 points 21 hours ago
[–] damnatum_seditiosus@hexbear.net 11 points 20 hours ago

Terrell, I see your name all around with post with links and I think it's the first time I saw a comment of yours and it is of great quality!

Thanks for sharing it and wow!