this post was submitted on 22 Feb 2026
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Intelligence is good at motivations and trends but recently there's been some major failures in projecting outcomes.
USA turning isolationist was predicted, it was however a faster and harder turn than projected.
Ukraine I think was projected to just turn out much like Putin wanted. A quick grab of the territories he considered disputed, he gets a nice show of force meanwhile Europe gets to suffer treaties to play nice with Russian economy again until next time that hopefully is in the far future while gearing up their own military might yet under USA's wing.
The reality where Ukraine didn't fold and Russia was exposed as a Paper Tiger and the majority of Europe as a Steel Garfield was in neither's interest.