this post was submitted on 19 Feb 2026
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[–] Buffalox@lemmy.world 6 points 13 hours ago* (last edited 13 hours ago) (1 children)

I am shocked about how accurate my prediction was back before the election, I predicted that UK would lose about 1% per year over many years, if they voted Brexit.
And here we are now 10 years after the vote, and 8 years after Brexit was effectuated, and the relative decline to non Brexit is estimated at 6-8%.

If UK doesn't manage a free trade agreement with EU, I suspect this will continue for another decade, possibly at a slightly lower rate.

If UK does manage to get a good deal with EU, things will return to almost normal, but the investments that were lost this past decade will remain lost. So UK will continue from the lower level they are at now.

[–] tal@lemmy.today 1 points 1 hour ago

If UK doesn’t manage a free trade agreement with EU

The UK has an FTA with the EU, the TCA. It was negotiated as part of Brexit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EU%E2%80%93UK_Trade_and_Cooperation_Agreement

The EU–UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) is a free trade agreement signed on 30 December 2020, between the European Union (EU), the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom), and the United Kingdom (UK). It provisionally applied[3][4] from 1 January 2021, when the Brexit transition period ended,[5] before formally entering into force on 1 May 2021, after the ratification processes on both sides were completed: the UK Parliament ratified on 30 December 2020;[6] the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union ratified in late April 2021.[2]