Political Optimism

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bibbasa@piefed.social

Fox News Analyst Warns Republicans as 30 GOP House Members and 6 Senators Opt to not Run for Reelection (thehill.com)

submitted 1 day ago by bibbasa@piefed.social to c/politicaloptimism@piefed.social

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Fifty-one House members and 12 senators have opted not to run for reelection — on track for the most departures from Congress this century, according to an NBC News analysis. Most of the House members leaving are Republican, 30, and most of the departing senators, too, six.

Fox ominously reports that voters most motivated to vote in the upcoming elections prefer Democrats. In fact, their 52 percent support “is the highest recorded for either party. In 2017, the last time it was even close (50 percent), House Republicans lost their majority later in that cycle.

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[–] blarghly@lemmy.world 29 points 1 day ago (1 children)

I understand that this is a good thing, and I like it.

But at the same time, we should remember that due to gerrymandering, fptp voting systems, and voter suppression, many of those Republicans will be replaced by other Republicans - possibly even worse ones.

So yes, I hope the tides are turning, and I'll definitely be casting my ballots in the mid term. But also, remember that we have to make real electoral reforms to make any good changes stick.

[–] bibbasa@piefed.social 10 points 1 day ago (2 children)

dems have been gerrymandering too, and indiana refused to gerrymander for trump, and after some recent local elections, it's looking like texas's gerrymander is already blowing up in their face as trump's latino gains have been all but lost. it's not as imbalanced as you might think right now, in fact, the balance seems to be shifting towards democrats as maps are being redrawn to be bluer, and red maps are backfiring.

[–] captainlezbian@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

Also gerrymandering trades between likelihood of victory and number of seats. You can tilt it some pretty safely, but in a situation where a major upset is expected you can find yourself firmly on the back foot, especially if you overextended by doing something like making every district except one or two slightly in your favor. Not saying that's what's going to happen but it's important to keep in mind to avoid doomering

[–] OwOarchist@pawb.social 3 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

it’s looking like texas’s gerrymander is already blowing up in their face as trump’s latino gains have been all but lost

Yep. It looks like the GOP forgot: the harder you gerrymander, the thinner your margins get in the 'winning' districts. Then, even a slight change in public attitudes or voter turnout compared to what you predicted, and you could suddenly be losing in basically every district.

And the brutality of ICE is definitely enough to swing public attitudes, especially among the Latino population. It's very possible that this gerrymandering could blow up in their face massively and make them lose nearly every district.