this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2026
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Political Optimism

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Fifty-one House members and 12 senators have opted not to run for reelection — on track for the most departures from Congress this century, according to an NBC News analysis. Most of the House members leaving are Republican, 30, and most of the departing senators, too, six.

Fox ominously reports that voters most motivated to vote in the upcoming elections prefer Democrats. In fact, their 52 percent support “is the highest recorded for either party. In 2017, the last time it was even close (50 percent), House Republicans lost their majority later in that cycle.

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[–] captainlezbian@lemmy.world 1 points 1 day ago

Also gerrymandering trades between likelihood of victory and number of seats. You can tilt it some pretty safely, but in a situation where a major upset is expected you can find yourself firmly on the back foot, especially if you overextended by doing something like making every district except one or two slightly in your favor. Not saying that's what's going to happen but it's important to keep in mind to avoid doomering