Capitalism is in decay, and the party which were supposed to be the social democratic workers party - Labour - have been mask off, right-wing capitalists. Meanwhile, the billionaires are preventing class consciousness from developing by funding the anti-immgration nonsense.

Under these conditions, of course Reform will do well however, no matter how much they try, people in the UK are seeing the western capitalism system in more and more of a negative lens thanks to all of the scandals the past few years, particularly the Epstein files, all of the failures of neoliberalism and austerity, the NHS being left to rot, kids starving, the rise of China proving socialism still can succeed, the Palestinian genocide which we were aiding Israel in doing, and much more.

Labour and the Tories will very likely remain unpopular, Reform I can't see getting much more popular, they'll probably retain about 30% of the votes. The LibDems will do quite well picking up those not woke enough for the Greens but not fascist enough for Reform. And the Greens, who are not just the environmentalists party but are becoming under new leadership, a leftist populist party, are not to be underestimated. I wouldn't bet my life on them winning but I can see it happening even though currently it seems so unlikely to most.