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Agreed on most of that - but I don't know that violent removal of his administration from power after a successful coup is the most likely outcome - the US military was in the hands of other side in the case of the Confederacy ... a successful Trump coup would maybe lead to schisms within the military or between state National Guards and federal forces (maybe), but it's also possible Trump just takes and holds power and there is no domestic military force that is willing or able to remove him. Maybe California and other states would band together, but I'm not sure they would have the military to fight off the US military if they are loyal to Trump after a coup.
It's possible Trump's coup will be more like what happened in Russia, where they find a way to do it without much bloodshed by undermining the democratic institutions of elections, media, etc. so that it all appears to be constitutional and legal, but the government has clearly become autocratic.