this post was submitted on 05 Feb 2026
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Climate

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Discussion of climate, how it is changing, activism around that, the politics, and the energy systems change we need in order to stabilize things.

As a starting point, the burning of fossil fuels, and to a lesser extent deforestation and release of methane are responsible for the warming in recent decades: Graph of temperature as observed with significant warming, and simulated without added greenhouse gases and other anthropogentic changes, which shows no significant warming

How much each change to the atmosphere has warmed the world: IPCC AR6 Figure 2 - Thee bar charts: first chart: how much each gas has warmed the world.  About 1C of total warming.  Second chart:  about 1.5C of total warming from well-mixed greenhouse gases, offset by 0.4C of cooling from aerosols and negligible influence from changes to solar output, volcanoes, and internal variability.  Third chart: about 1.25C of warming from CO2, 0.5C from methane, and a bunch more in small quantities from other gases.  About 0.5C of cooling with large error bars from SO2.

Recommended actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions in the near future:

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[–] xodasu@sh.itjust.works 4 points 5 hours ago

Good, clear explainer. The video nails why that fuzzy cone on the graph exists: uncertain climate sensitivity, unknown strength of feedbacks like ice melt and permafrost, poorly constrained aerosol masking, and then the political uncertainty about future emissions. Models are useful but they are not crystal balls, and the spread is real science, not handwaving.

That said, "we don't know exactly" is not a get-out-of-jail-free card. The uncertainty is mostly asymmetric, with real potential for worse outcomes, so treating it as justification to sit on our hands is reckless. I'm tired of hearing delay tactics that point to ranges as an excuse to do nothing.

Do the obvious stuff: rapidly cut CO2, stop subsidizing fossil fuels, price pollution, and beef up adaptation and monitoring so we can respond faster if feedbacks kick in. Uncertainty should make us act faster, not slower.