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They're really fucking doing it, aren't they?
They're gonna turn Iraq into a Wahhabi pawn in order to get at Iran, just like they did with Syria so they could clear the Syrian airspace to be able to launch strikes on Iran from planes without the need to refuel. We already saw what the US did with their bunker busters with Syria's airspace being accessible to them.
Those prisoners that have been transferred will escape. I would put money on it.
(Edit: Alt-text provided by comrade Edie. Tyfys o7)
Thanks for flagging this. It's super interesting and very much below the radar.
It's really interesting. There seems to be some questionable events leading up to the SDF packing it in. The AANES/Rojava is on a very low ebb right now and it seems likely that we are seeing the beginning of the end of that political project.
This map is likely out of date but the yellow region is the AANES territory where you can see them on the border with Iraq:
Say what you want about them but they have been engaged in bitter conflict against ISIS for well over a decade. As they appear to be winding down and with the SDF demobilizing, plus the US putting a ton of pressure on Iraq to demobilize the paramilitaries that are armed and supported by Iran, in part to combat ISIS, it paints a worrying picture.
I can point to the assassination of Qassem Soleimani, the celebrated Iranian general who was crucial in coordinating efforts against ISIS, which was carried out by a US strike on Iraqi territory
or to the consistently sketchy interactions and "events" between ISIS, the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia where support and arms and training and money all just happens to flow directly into ISIS' hands.
I forget the exact details but during the Syrian civil war there was a prison filled with ISIS members that was left unguarded, either by US backed forces or maybe because the US was carrying out strikes in the region and it caused an evacuation, which unleashed hundreds or more prisoners right on Rojava's doorstep.
Idk maybe it's tinfoil hat material but they're shifting ISIS pieces around the board again (and we know they use ISIS as proxies) while removing the forces best positioned to combat ISIS. The US has warned Iraq that war is coming to the region and they even started making signals that they might not recognize the recent Iraqi elections before they took place. It's hard to imagine al-Julani wouldn't covertly back Wahhabi insurgents in Iraq, especially if the US state department gave him the greenlight and things were kicking off in Iraq.
There's a lot of troubling signs I've been seeing over the recent months in particular and we know that a war on Iran is the ultimate prize. Maybe my pattern recognition is going into overdrive but it's hard not to see the same old playbook in these developments.
I hope for Iraq and Iran and all of West Asia that I'm proven utterly wrong on this.