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You're definitely correct about a lot of this, but your biggest mistake lies in underestimating Trump. He will leave in a body bag, no matter how much the general populace or even the wealthy elites dislike him. The violent thugs and Christian nationalists fully buy into the strength he projects, and they will not dispose him for the elites. No election will unseat him, as he plans on rigging the elections fully by 2028 whether he lives that long or not.
A period of elites trying to establish regional divisions and a breakup of the union will come, but not until Trump is dead. This is especially true when you consider how interwoven the military is at a national level. There are no regional divisions, and so there will be no breakup until the military is more thoroughly weakened and corrupted at an interpersonal level. A sudden power vacuum and disillusionment with Trump's administration by everyone sets the best stage for them to take control.