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I think that’s a very strange prediction that looks like it basically assumes market share is only influenced by regulations. Gas stations losing 83% of their customers is a huge change with cascading effects, but this chart looks like it assumes combustion engines will just stay popular forever, only bounded by production limited by regulation…
That's just your guess. When ICE car displays low fuel warning you can still drive for about 60 km and in my experience you can easily reach 2-3 gas stations. Where I live there are 5 gas stations within 2 km radius. It's typical to have two gas stations on both sides of the highway. When it comes to car charges the GOAL is to have one every 50 km but it's still not there. When there is a charger it's only on one side of the road or even couple kilometers off the highway, in some town. Yet we still have about ~16% of electric cars on the roads. Even with 80% less gas stations ICE drivers would still be in a pretty good situation, similar to the situation of EV drivers now. On top of that gas stations double as service stations. People stop there to buy drinks, food, wipers fluid, pump their tiers or wash their car. I never saw w charging stations offer any of that. Gas stations make majority of their profits from their convenience stores and services. So it's really hard to say what effect losing 80% of cars will have. A lot of gas stations will close, some will transform into service stations with chargers and some will probably stay as they are.