this post was submitted on 26 Dec 2025
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Hurling ordure at the TREACLES, especially those closely related to LessWrong.

AI-Industrial-Complex grift is fine as long as it sufficiently relates to the AI doom from the TREACLES. (Though TechTakes may be more suitable.)

This is sneer club, not debate club. Unless it's amusing debate.

[Especially don't debate the race scientists, if any sneak in - we ban and delete them as unsuitable for the server.]

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Its almost the end of the year so most US nonprofits which want to remain nonprofits have filed Form 990 for 2024 including some run by our dear friends. This is a mandatory financial report.

  • Lightcone Infrastructure is here. They operate LessWrong and the Lighthaven campus in Berkeley but list no physical assets; someone on Reddit says that they let fellow travelers like Scott Alexander use their old rented office for free. "We are a registered 501(c)3 and are IMO the best bet you have for converting money into good futures for humanity." They also published a book and website with common-sense, data-based advice for Democratic Party leaders which I am sure fills a gap in the literature. https://decidingtowin.org/
  • CFAR is here. They seem to own the campus in Berkeley ("Land, buildings, and equipment ... less depreciation; $22,026,042"). I don't know what else they do since they stopped teaching rationality workshops in 2016 or so and pivoted to worrying about building Colossus.
  • MIRI is here. They pay Yud ($599,970 in 2024!) and after failing to publish much research on how to build Friend Computer they pivoted to arguing that Friend Computer might not be our friend. Edit: they had about $16 million in mostly financial assets (cash, investments, etc.) at end of year but spent $6.5m against $1.5m of revenue in 2024. Since 2021 they have been consuming a $25 million donation they received that year.
  • BEMC Foundation is here. This husband-and-wife organization gives about $2 million/year each to Vox Future Perfect and GiveWell out of tens of millions of dollars in capital.
  • The Clear Fund (GiveWell) is here. They have the biggest wad of cash and the highest cashflow.
  • Edit: Open Philanthropy (now Coefficient Giving) is here (they have two sister organizations). David Gerard says they are mainly a way for Dustin Moskevitz the co-founder of Facebook to organize donations, like the Gates, Carnegie, and Rockefeller foundations. They used to fund Lightcone.
  • Edit: Animal Charity Evaluators is here. They have funded Vox Future Perfect (in 2020-2021) and the longtermist kind of animal welfare ("if humans eating pigs is bad, isn't whales eating krill worse?")
  • Edit: Survival and Flourishing Fund does not seem to be a charity. Whereas a Lightcone staffer says that SFF funds Lightcone, SFF say that they just connect applicants to donors and evaluate grant applications. So who exactly is providing the money? Sometimes its Jaan Tallinn of Skype and Kazaa.
  • Centre for Effective Altruism is mostly British but has a US wing since March 2025 https://projects.propublica.org/nonprofits/organizations/333737390
  • Edit: Giving What We Can seems like a mainstream "bednets and deworming pills" type of charity
  • Edit: Givedirectly Inc is an excellent idea in principle (give money to poor people overseas and let them figure out how best to use it) but their auditor flagged them for Material noncompliance and Material weakness in internal controls. The mistakes don't seem sinister (they classified $39 million of donations as conditional rather than unconditional- ie. with more restrictions than they actually had). GiveDirectly, Give What We Can, and GiveWell are all much better funded than the core LessWrong organizations.

Since CFAR seem to own Lighthaven, its curious that Lightcone head Oliver Habryka threatens to sell it if Lightcone shut down. One might almost imagine that boundaries between all these organizations are not as clear as the org charts make it seem. SFGate says that it cost $16.5 million plus renovations:

Who are these owners? The property belongs to a limited liability company called Lightcone Rose Garden, which appears to be a stand-in for the nonprofit Center for Applied Rationality and its project, Lightcone Infrastructure. Both of these organizations list the address, 2740 Telegraph Ave., as their home on public filings. They’ve renovated the inn, named it Lighthaven, and now use it to host events, often related to the organizations’ work in cognitive science, artificial intelligence safety and “longtermism.”

Habryka was boasting about the campus in 2024 and said that Lightcone budgeted $6.25 million on renovating the campus that year. It also seems odd for a nonprofit to spend money renovating a property that belongs to another nonprofit.

On LessWrong Habryka also mentions "a property we (Lightcone) own right next to Lighthaven, which is worth around $1M." Lightcone's 2024 paperwork listed the only assets as cash and accounts receivable. So either they are passing around assets like the last plastic cup at a frat party, or they bought this recently while the dispute with the trustees was ongoing, or Habryka does not know what his organization actually owns.

The California end seems to be burning money, as many movements with apocalyptic messages and inexperienced managers do. Revenue was significantly less than expenses and assets of CFAR are close to liabilities. CFAR/Lightcone do not have the $4.9 million liquid assets which the FTX trustees want back and claim their escrow company lost another $1 million of FTX's money.

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[–] CinnasVerses@awful.systems 3 points 5 hours ago* (last edited 5 hours ago)

It appears that MIRI had an inflection point in 2019 when they grew from a $3.6m / yr organization to a $6 million / yr. In 2021 they received $25 million in donations and they have been burning that ever since. They received $15.6m in crypto from one anonymous donor and $4.4m in crypto from Vitalik Buterin of Etherium in 2021. Since then they report $1.6m to $1.9m / year of donations, and their December 2025 fundraiser aimed at $6 million and has reached $1.2 million (half of that a match from Survival and Flourishing Fund ie. probably another tech exec or crypto gambler). So MIRI depends on a few rich donors and could not survive in its present form from ordinary rationalists chipping in.

MIRI and Lightcone have unusual calls for donations at the same time. That seems like poor coordination but operations are not our friends' strength.

Their executive compensation exploded from $1.3m to $3.1m in 2024. Their other activities were giving out $280k in grants and spending $34k on a conference. What are they doing with all that money? You don't need $3.1m to write a trade book and get on some podcasts. And they plan to spend faster next year:

Going into 2026, our budget projections have a median of $8M, assuming some growth and large projects, with large error bars from uncertainty about the amount of growth and projects. On the upper end of our projections, our expenses would hit upwards of $10M/yr.