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This is what-if thinking. Right now the Russian are clearly showing disinterest in negotiating the end of the war, they are fully prepared to sacrifice more lives in order to gain territories, there is no reason to think they weren't already at the start.
it's delusional thinking, they took crimea...and they tried to to take more when they thought they could get away with, russians have been using the same playbook for centuries now. there are so many examples to pick from here showing this...give them anything and it just paints you as an easy target for more.
the real question (imo) is why hasnt someone just assassinated putin by now
Because everyone close enough to assassinate Putin benefits from the regime. None of them are in their positions for altruistic reasons and all them them would face the gallows if Russia had real accountability. It's why Coup attempts are frequently not launched by Generals.
there was barely resistance during obama when he took crimea, he was hoping biden was the same. his micalculated, covid helped indirectly, because everyone was basically home and paying attention to the news.
More specifically he underestimated the preparation of Ukrainian soldiers, notably the fact that NATO instructors came to share their training and tactics and help to prepare for the next war. He was well aware of it though, he used that as an argument that Ukraine was about to join NATO.
they still have over 135-144milion people in russia, he would probably send half of his orcs if he could.