this post was submitted on 15 Nov 2025
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Thank you for this detailed write up.
In what ways has it changed? I agree that Russians will inevitably favor communism over capitalism, but I just don't see it manifesting without another revolution. In the end of the day, Putin is a neoliberal.
Russia was enamored with the western system for a long time, and now people are turning away from it. That's the key change that's currently happening. It's hard to say whether a revolution will be necessary or not. It's worth keeping in mind that the transition from socialism to capitalism was largely peaceful. So, there could be a compromise possible where Russia allows capitalists to continue to exists as seen in China, but there's going to be the communist party in charge of the state as a whole and capitalists lose the political power they currently enjoy.
It's also worth noting that much of the core industry in Russia is already state owned, and it's actually just behind China in that regard. A 2023 World Bank study gives a pretty good overview. In particular, it distinguishes between businesses of the state (BOS), that are at least 10% government owned by some government, and state owned enterprises (SOE), which are majority owned or more, and controlled, by the government.
Top line result is shown in the following chart:
And here's another chart showing SOE in Russia compared with China https://cepr.org/voxeu/columns/state-owned-enterprises-global-economy-reason-concern