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There are only 48, right? And of those 13 are up for re-election. That's better than 1 in 4. To look at 8 defectors and none of them be up seems..... Highly coincidental at best.
For this to happen by pure chance, that 8 randomly selected people from a group of 48 includes none of the 13 that are up for re-election, the odds are 6.2%. Not impossible but unlikely enough to doubt it's a coincidence.
(For math people: this can be modeled as a hypergeometric distribution with N=48, K=13, n=8, k=0.)
I suspect most people haven't heard these terms. But they should have studied basic combinatorics in high school, and that's all it really is. You had a pool of 48 people from whom to choose 8, but you happened to choose them from the specific pool of 35 not up for reelection. So the likelihood of that happening randomly is just 35 choose 8 / 48 choose 8, which is indeed 6.2%.
its probably those 13, schumer is shielding.
Simple random samples (uniform probability for each individual) without replacement follow the hypergeometric distribution. However, humans aren't random, know when they go up for re-election, and decide accordingly, so the probability for each individual is not uniform. We could expect a much higher probability for this outcome than that of a simple random sample.
I ran the numbers on the "purely random" scenario, and it's a 5.77% chance that none of 8 randomly selected from a group of 47 would be from a subgroup of 13 (34/47 * 33/46 * 32/45...)
I ran them again under the Totally Accurate Wild Guess of those 13 being 3 times as likely to cave as the others, and the odds of all 8 being from that set is 34.4%.
Ramping it up to 10 times as likely, 71.5%.
The 50% mark happens around 4.73 times as likely.
None of these numbers are meant to convince anyone of anything, they're just provided for whatever anyone wants them for.
That's exactly my point. :)