this post was submitted on 20 Oct 2025
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I think this winter will be very tough for many Russians.
But whether they run out of steam during the winter, depends 100% on the Russian population and how much they are willing to sacrifice.
The predictions of Russian economic collapse was always about when Russia had spent their war chest Putin had built up to withstand western sanctions. And as predicted this war chest is now used up, and the Russian government is running on deficits.
As I recall last winter we had predictions that this years harvest would fail, and that has happened for all the exact reasons it was predicted. For instance Russia has needed to import huge amounts of potatoes, drying up supplies in Belarus, which is Europe's biggest exporter of potatoes. This is also evident in that food in Russia is hit by inflation way above average.
The Russian economy is also beginning to collapse now, just as many predicted.
The Russian economy saw growth in the first years powered by the use of the war chest and oil money. And Russia had huge problems with getting enough workers. But now we are beginning to see unemployment, despite the war effort.
So the predictions have been pretty good as I see it, even the timescale has been surprisingly accurate IMO.
There have been economists who claimed the Russian economy is still doing fine as late as a month ago, but those economists are wrong from everything I hear out of Russia. Russia is absolutely not fine. And the Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries has really increased the pressure on the Russian economy.