this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2025
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It'll swing back. It's not like we're going to stop needing software, and frankly the software is out there is kind of crap and needs work.
But important lesson for people thinking about getting into the field is to not do it for the money. Do it because you love it.
Supply will fall, demand will rise, salaries will increase, supply will rise, there will be a crash, demand will fall, salaries will fall, supply will fall...
And with each bust in the cycle, conditions for workers will get worse, while billionaires get ever richer, a process not at all offset by the boom cycles, because clawing back concessions is way harder then accepting them cuz you'd starve otherwise.
The best system at work. No way could there be a better one.
Working for a publicly-traded company will always make this as bad as possible. People sometimes have better luck with private companies which aren't beholden to shareholder value.
Nothing teaches you quite like ‘jobs are a concession porky hates making’ than being a teenager looking for your first job.
I don't think it'll bounce back to the same levels as before. Big wigs are content with good enough (Brian Merchant wrote about this) especially since it's cheaper, so less developers implementing good enough solutions.
We had a student graduate and take a job out the gate for $430k about 3 years ago. With a BS. Just an insane number equivalent to $250k in 2001, a number none of my peers were near at the time.
Large salaries like that are certainly a sign of unhealth, and this industry likes to push itself there periodically.
So maybe it doesn't get back to that point, but I suspect it will return to previous normal levels. TBH, though, I think it will someday go insane again.