Canada

Carney will put all his promises on the table, announce a new CUSMA, and then propose a new budget in October.

If it gets voted down, it will trigger an election before the Conservatives are ready and with a long list of recent promises, actions, and spending for Carney to point to. The Conservatives would have to scramble to put up a new leader. They will probably lose the election with PP at the helm. The Bloc will probably help the libs pass the budget anyway though so I am not expecting this timeline.

If the budget moves ahead, it will be a lot harder to trigger an election for a while and Carney will have more time to prove out his programs. If he fails, sure. But if his policies work, the Libs will probably win the next election.

And what is the thesis here? That people will vote blue instead of red to save the environment? Not likely. The fact that Carney is moving right makes it harder for team blue to attack him.

If they scrap then Chinese EV tariff, the climate folks and the farmers are back on team red. If they can get an announcement that a Chinese EV company will build a plant in Ontario, even the Doug Ford’s of the world may come on board. There is a lot Carney can do to change the calculus of this article completely.

I am not sure that things look as great for the Conservatives as this article suggests.