this post was submitted on 15 Sep 2025
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Image is of protestors burning down the Singha Durbar, the seat of Nepal's government offices in Kathmandu.

For more on the situation in Nepal, I recommend @MelianPretext@lemmygrad.ml's comment here.


Following a "anti-corruption" protest movement spurred by a social media ban (but with much deeper roots) in which dozens of protestors were killed by state forces, the government of KP Oli has been ousted, and an interim leader is currently in power as the country prepares for elections. Notably, events have been characterized as "Gen Z protests", and this leader was decided (at least partially) by a Discord vote. When a non-western government rapidly falls, it's wise to at least glance in the direction of the United States, and there are almost certainly elements of color revolution here. But, as always, it's more complicated than simple regime change - Nepal is a deeply troubled economy even as developing countries go.

Vijay Prashad has offered his five theses as to why Nepal's government fell that goes beyond non-specific terms like "corruption" or "color revolution":

  1. Despite winning 75% of the seats in parliament in 2017, the various communist parties have failed to unify towards forming a common agenda and solving the problems of the people. When the nominally united communist party split in 2021, infighting and opportunism eventually brought on the rightist politicians we see today.

  2. The Nepalese economy is not successful. Disasters are slow to be ameliorated, education and healthcare is underfunded, and poverty is fairly rampant. There have been significant developments made by the communist parties, such as electrification programs and some poverty reduction, but it has been insufficient.

  3. The petty bourgeois usually come from oppressed Hindu castes, and are frustrated by the domination of upper castes, and so are inspired by India's BJP. They essentially want a return to monarchy, under the guise of anti-corruption, and despite their relatively small numbers, are powerfully organized.

  4. Of the countries that aren't tiny islands, Nepal has the highest per capita rate of work migration, due to insufficient employment in Nepal. The jobs that Nepalese citizens receive overseas range from unpleasant to unbearable in both labour and wages, and this has generated rightful suspicion that the government cares more about foreign direct investors than their own citizens overseas.

  5. The government of KP Oli was close to the United States, and India's Modi has promoted the BJP in Nepal. Both countries have sought to exert influence over Nepal, though Prashad speculates that, if there is indeed a foreign mastermind at work, India is more likely to be the culprit behind these recent protests, in a gambit to use the chaos to promote/install a far right monarchist government.

I agree with Prashad that it seems unlikely that mere electoral changes will result in anything terribly productive, though whatever government emerges will inevitably hoist the banner of anti-corruption to try and legitimize themselves. We have seen the same breakdown of electoralism as a meaningful pathway to solve national problems all across the world, from the superpowers to the poorest states. Until a rupture occurs, greater surveillance, policing, and repression seems guaranteed.


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[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 40 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (5 children)

an interesting military tech development - after a trend among Western mechanized forces towards bigger and heavier APCs and IFVs (see the Boxer for example), complete with constant shitting on the Soviet/Russian vehicles for how under-armored they are, we may now be retvrn-ing to tradition, and bringing the BTR and M113/MT-LB style back - lighter and cheaper vehicles only really protected against rifle rounds and shrapnel: https://archive.ph/tr4iH & https://archive.ph/St1Bm

UK, Norway join Patria APC program, with plans for British production

The United Kingdom and Norway joined the Patria-led European program for a six-wheeled armored personnel carrier, bringing the number of participating countries to seven, the Finnish company announced at the DSEI UK defense show here on Tuesday.

the Brits, btw, have been in a years-long quagmire on their new APC/IFV project - it seems like this year they finally began proper deliveries on the Ajax, after many delays, but they've also decided to buy something cheaper and simpler to supplement it (and the Boxer that they've also gotten a bunch of)

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Patria and British defense firm Babcock International additionally signed an agreement to manufacture the armored carrier in the U.K. under the program, called Common Armoured Vehicle System or CAVS, the companies said. The Finnish defense company is the lead designer of CAVS, based on the Patria 6x6 wheeled platform and manufactured in Finland but also locally in Latvia, with plans for production in Germany.

The APC costs between €1.1 million and €1.5 million (US$1.3 million-1.8 million) per vehicle, based on recent purchases by Latvia and Sweden.

The Boxer, for comparison, is supposed to be €4-5 million for its APC variant and €7-9 million for its IFV variant. I couldn't find per-unit costs for the Ajax (it also comes as both an APC and an IFV, as well as some other variants, like the Boxer, so costs would differ between them), but the total cost is around €4.7 billion for 589 vehicles, which averages out to around 8 million per vehicle - so maybe the IFV ones are something like 10 mil, while the APCs like 6 mil, as a rough guesstimate. Maybe somewhat cheaper, since a big part of the ballooning costs was presumably R&D and testing, so after that's ironed out the actual manufacturing costs shouldn't be as big.

“As European security needs to be strengthened, multinational collaboration is increasingly important for interoperability, interchangeability and security of supply among allies,” Patria CEO Esa Rautalinko said in a statement. Patria says it’s received orders for nearly 1,000 6x6 vehicles, and delivered more than 250 through the CAVS program, making it the current best-seller in the Finnish company’s portfolio. Separately, Patria announced a new tracked APC at DSEI UK on Tuesday for all-terrain troop transport, which it aims to have ready for serial production in 2027. Babcock will manufacture the Patria 6x6 vehicles for the British Army, under the agreement announced on Tuesday, after the U.K. Ministry of Defence officially joined the CAVS program. “Our partnership brings clear benefits,” said Jussi Järvinen, Patria’s executive vice president for protected mobility. “The UK needs a proven ready-to-use vehicle platform, and the Patria 6x6, already operational in NATO countries, will be locally built and supported to meet British Army requirements.” Babcock said CAVS is being used by a growing number of countries in the Joint Expeditionary Force alliance, of which the U.K. is a member, with JEF members Finland, Latvia, Sweden, Denmark and Germany all buying the APC. “We are proud to be working with Patria as their official build partner on the 6×6, and as a strategic partner of the British Army, we are perfectly positioned to deliver a large fleet of formidable, proven armored personnel carriers,” said Tom Newman, the CEO for Babcock’s land sector.

CAVS has Stanag level 2 ballistic and mine protection, designed to withstand armored-piercing rifle rounds, and can be upgraded to level 4 for protection against high-caliber AP rounds. The vehicle can carry up to 10 soldiers in the rear, in addition to the driver and commander. The all-wheel-drive, diesel-powered APC has a maximum combat weight of 24 metric tons, including a maximum payload of 8.5 tons, and has a top speed of more than 100 kilometers per hour and a range of more than 700 kilometers.

Finland’s Patria launches light tracked APC as successor to M113

Finland’s Patria introduced a light tracked armored personnel carrier dubbed Trackx which it says could be a successor to the M113, one of the most successful armored vehicles in history, with the aim for the new APC to be ready for serial production in 2027.

I guess the MIC has finally entered it's name things like an app era

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The all-terrain troop carrier was unveiled at the DSEI UK defense show in London on Tuesday, and fills a hole in the market between lighter and heavier vehicles, according to Patria. Trackx is designed to carry 12 soldiers with equipment, including a driver, commander and ten dismounts. Patria is pitching Trackx as a modern alternative in the 13-18 metric-ton class of tracked armor, a segment still dominated by the M113, a 65-year old design that has recently seen extensive use in Ukraine. With most recent armor designs trending heavier, the new APC could provide European forces with a lighter, more affordable option for all-terrain troop transport.

“There is nothing similar on the market, there is currently no comparable product segment from any other manufacturer,” Jussi Järvinen, Patria’s executive vice president for protected mobility, told Defense News in a written reply to questions. “Competitors mostly manufacture lighter or significantly heavier and more expensive vehicles.”

either too light or too heavy... wait a minute seen-this-one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interim_Armored_Vehicle "In a June 1999 communique, U.S. Army Chief of Staff General Eric Shinseki said "our heavy forces are too heavy and our light forces lack staying power." ... He called for a mid-weight unit that would strike a balance between heavy armor and infantry."

Trackx is the first production-ready vehicle to come out of the European Union-funded FAMOUS program to develop future high-mobility armor, for which Finland is the lead nation and Patria the coordinating company. Patria presented a FAMOUS concept vehicle at the Eurosatory defense show in Paris last year. The new APC could be “a very suitable solution” for countries that operate the M113 or MT-LB type light tracked armor and are looking for a replacement, according to Patria. The M113, with more than 40 variants, is one of the most widely used combat vehicles in the world, with more than 80,000 vehicles produced.

The maximum combat weight of Patria’s new APC is 15.5 tons, with ballistic protection against small-arms fire that can be upgraded to protect against armor-piercing rifle rounds. Patria says it has extensively tested Trackx on roads, in forests, bogs and snow. The vehicle is equipped with rubber tracks, and designed to have low ground pressure, a low center of gravity and adjustable hydro-pneumatic suspension for each track wheel. Trackx has drawn “considerable attention” from potential customers, as the APC addresses gaps in land mobility, according to Järvinen. He said most of the interest is from countries in the EU, but there are also inquiries from outside Europe. With regards to potential markets, the executive said “it’s important to note” that the FAMOUS program member countries contributed to development efforts and helped set the requirements. In addition to Finland, eight EU countries participate in the program, including France, Germany and Spain.

The total budget of the FAMOUS program is around €132 million ($155 million), including around €9 million in funding from the European Commission and €95 million from the European Defence Fund, with the remainder funded by the member countries and the participating companies. For Finland, the program is part of a project to replace its existing fleet of all-terrain vehicles, with a requirement to operate in harsh northern weather and terrain conditions. Patria’s partners in the FAMOUS consortium include France’s Arquus, French-German KNDS and Spain’s Indra. The Finnish company said the manufacturing role of its partners will depend on potential customer nations. Patria said its operating model is based on the strong role of local production, and it has experience in setting up wheeled-armor programs in other countries. The company is the lead designer of the Common Armoured Vehicle System based on the Patria 6x6 wheeled platform, which is manufactured in Finland but also in Latvia, with plans for local production in Germany.

May the cycle of "make amazing super-capable weapon -> realize you can't actually manufacture anywhere near enough of it -> make a much simpler and cheaper one to supplement it" keeps on cycling.

[–] Euergetes@hexbear.net 18 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (3 children)

if you look at photos of the thing it may be less armored than newer APCs but it still has an enormous profile and very roomy troop compartment. less BTR, more tracked MRAP

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 16 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) (1 children)

The Trackx? That's meant more-so for the M113 role, which is already decently big.

The Trackx brochure from here states it as over 7m long, under 3m wide and 2m tall, while the M113 is 4.86m long, 2.68m wide and 2.5m tall (although the height on the M113 seems to include the machine gun, while the Trackx is only up until the roof) - so the Trackx is slightly wider (although its tracks stick out a bit past the hull, and the hull itself has sloped walls, while on the M113 the tracks are right below the hull and the walls are straight, so the actual hull interior widths are probably a lot closer), height is maybe a little bit more or little bit less, not sure how much the machine gun on the M113 accounts for, and definitely quite a bit longer. Its profile is certainly larger than an MT-LB, but not that much more than the M113, at least when viewed frontally - you'd definitely see the extra length when looking from the side.

The BTR equivalent here is the CAVS/Patria 6x6, which is mostly bigger in height - I'm not sure if the CAVS has any substantial dimensional differences to the base Patria 6x6, but for that we have 7.5 length (compared to 7.7m on a BTR-80), 2.9m width (the same 2.9m on the BTR-80, but sloping comes into play again - the BTR has much more extreme sloping, so interior space is definitely better on the Patria - but on the other hand, achieving equivalent protection would require more armor thickness and thus weight with straighter walls), and 2.5m height (compared to 2.41m on the BTR-80 - and that includes a turret with 14.5mm machine gun, although I'm not sure what the height on the Patria is measuring precisely, the official brochure says "height over hull", so maybe they're also including a machine gun mount like on the M113? Definitely seems like the Patria is a decent bit taller though). So again, it is somewhat bigger but not exactly enormous compared to the Cold War classics - at least the Trackx has a substantial lengthening, the wheeled 6x6 seems pretty in line with vehicles like the BTR, French VAB, German TPz Fuchs and Canadian/American LAV series (at least in their pre-Stryker/LAV 6 variations)

[–] Euergetes@hexbear.net 11 points 2 days ago (1 children)

this perspective made it look a bit tall but other perspectives do make 2m seem somewhat reasonable. enormous turret for it just having a machine gun in it though

[–] Tervell@hexbear.net 7 points 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago)

enormous turret for it just having a machine gun in it though

Yeah, definitely. I assume it's some kind of "modular design" thing, where the turret is an independent module that just gets plopped on top of the roof, rather than having a dedicated turret basket that descends down in the hull, so that you can easily have armed and unarmed variants that use the same hull (rather than a separate one for the armed variant which has been redesigned to accommodate the turret), at the cost of the turret being bigger precisely because it's not taking advantage of the hull interior. Not sure how exactly the guy is sitting inside though, maybe his legs descend into the hull through an open hatch, but the turret rotates around him (which seems kind of risky)? Or maybe there is a little platform that extends downward for him to stand on, but the rotating mechanism is still above the hull, in the ring underneath the main body of the turret.

On this pic there appear to be bolts on the square under the turret, so maybe that's how it's attached?

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