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I'm not wholly convinced by this, but if this was the case Kirk makes a sensible target.
He's always at massive events with little serious security, it ties into Israeli fears of violence on campuses, his a high profile pundit but not really an 'activist' in any kind of essential role for the MAGA/international fascist project.
But most of all, while still being a pro-Israel ghoul, he's been pissing off Israeli hardliners the last month or so. He stated that some of the crackdowns on any anti-Israel sentiment go too far and risk his sacred 'free speech'. He was entertaining the idea publicly that Epstein was being run by Mossad. He's been on Megan Kelly's show and others to talk about how the Israeli hardliners on the right are going too far in attacking him, pushing people like him away, saying they're overly paranoid etc. Apart from getting some ultra-hardcore-zionist backlash on social media for that there's been a couple of critical articles of him in places like The Times of Israel in recent months too.
So if Israel or someone associated with it we're going to pick an 'ally' to use for something like that, he'd be a good choice.
I think they'll pin this on a fall guy that fits their narrative.
I disagree on this. He was basically the biggest "independent" media voice among those that are tied to MAGA at the hip, hence the famous "I trust my friends in the government [Trump's White House]" for why he was swearing off the Epstein stuff.
I think the violence on campuses thing is also a stretch here, but otherwise I agree. Nonetheless, I think Shapiro is a better target in every respect other than being the Israel hardliner of the online left, including being Jewish so the attack could be spun as "antisemitism," so I think if it was on the initiative of the White House and not Mossad, he's a much better target.