While Democratic leaders insist they won’t surrender in the face of Republican aggression, they are largely out of ammo. Democrats worked every angle in their seven states in 2021. In Illinois they took 14 of the state’s 17 congressional seats, claiming 82 percent of the seats despite winning just 52.7 percent of the two-party vote. Maryland Democrats crafted a map that yields them seven of eight seats, and the party awarded itself bonuses in Oregon and New Mexico and maximized its advantage in Nevada.
Few opportunities remain. Democrats are stretched thin in Illinois. Experts think there aren’t enough blue votes left to nab another seat there. Maryland courts have already blocked Democrats once from enacting an 8-0 map. A bipartisan commission draws lines in New Jersey; Democrats already control nine of 12 seats in a state that moved 5 percentage points toward Trump in 2024. New York’s state constitution stands in the way of mid-decade redistricting. It probably could not be amended before 2028.
That leaves California. Newsom and the Democratic legislature appear serious about counteracting Texas. The governor has talked openly about placing a ballot initiative before voters this fall that would pause the state’s independent redistricting commission and allow the legislature to match the Lone Star State’s aggressive norm-busting.
It’s not an easy path. But assume that it makes the ballot with two-thirds support in the legislature, wins approval from voters even though Republicans and independents outnumber Democrats, and then is upheld by the courts. Democrats already hold 43 of 52 seats from California. Even the most aggressive gerrymander, most Democrats concede, might push them to 48 wins.
That’s five seats – and would even the score with Texas. Except Republicans wouldn’t stop there. Ohio must redraw its maps this fall, and two ultra-competitive seats held by Democrats will be in the crosshairs. Missouri lawmakers have said they intend to nab an additional seat in Kansas City. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida has said he is “very seriously” looking at a redraw there that could jeopardize three South Florida Democrats and two others in Orlando and Tampa. Indiana and North Carolina could follow. Kansas, Kentucky and New Hampshire appear less interested, but if Trump brings pressure, few in his party resist.
Place two from Ohio, two more in Florida, and one each from Indiana, Missouri, and North Carolina in the GOP column, and you begin to see the Democrats’ problem. If Democrats are serious about all-out war, they’d also have to unravel commissions in Colorado and Washington. Good luck with that.
...
None of this sounds fair, or maybe even satisfactory. But it’s the painful consequence of the Democrats’ falling asleep in 2010 and surrendering state legislatures to Republicans, failing to focus on the Supreme Court with the GOP’s single-mindedness, and protecting the filibuster over reform in 2021, when Democrats held trifecta power. Fighting back will require many electoral cycles.
Archived at https://archive.is/RW979
Wrong
Wrong
Wrong, cause gerrymandering won't work because we don't have enough states to gerrymander. I respect the intentions behind it but it is a bad strategy.
We can still do it to at least try and offset some of the damage done in Texas, etc.
Offsetting some of the damage has zero practical effect with these Republicans, we need to cancel it out entirely. If they have even a one vote margin in the House they will shove the craziest legislation through with it.
The better strategy at this point is to draw a clear and simple distinction that the everyone can easily understand - the Democratic party doesn't redistrict without a new census and they don't ever say they're drawing districts just to disadvantage political opponents, that's something only illegitimate tyrants do. Besides the messaging, do whatever is necessary to keep Texas and the other states from pushing their redistricting forward (e.g. don't let the Texas state house get a quorum again).
Keep hammering that simple message, then as soon as we get any kind of majority in the House and get to set the rules there we will be well positioned to say "Anybody elected through a mid-census redistricting is illegitimate and will not be seated as a lawmaker in this House" and throw these fascist dipshits from Texas and Florida and Ohio and wherever else out on the steps without making the average person who doesn't follow politics that closely clutch their pearls over it.
Hello, I'm the average voter, and I just fell asleep when you said "mid-census redistricting" and something about tyrants.
This is a losing strategy. The other strategy is probably also a losing strategy, but at least it's going down swinging. The single greatest thing Democrats could do to get people in a voting booth is run on an anti-corruption, progressive economic agenda and show some backbone.
Ok, now try to tell your average voter why gerrymandering is good actually, I'm sure they'll be receptive to that message /s
Completely agreed, but this isn't that, this is using Republican misbehavior in other states to ruin their own states in a way that won't even get us the house and will be a drag on other races outside of their states
I'm saying they don't reward or punish it because they're too apathetic to care, so you might as well do everything you can to resist authoritarianism.
Partisans do pay attention and see this as putting up a fight. And turning out your base is the most important thing you can do in a mid-cycle election.