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What technology will disappear in the next 10 years? (lemmy.world)

submitted 3 months ago by Justathroughdaway@lemmy.world to c/asklemmy@lemmy.ml

175 comments fedilink hide all child comments

It goes without saying, DVDs/BlueRays.

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[–] wewbull@feddit.uk 37 points 3 months ago (4 children)

I'm going to be bold. The internal combustion engine car.

There will be a tipping point where nobody wants to maintain the highly intricate manufacturing for them, and they will stop very quickly. Electric motors are the future and the transition is accelerating. We're currently around 20% of new sales and I expect after 60-70% ICEs will just disappear from sale.

[+] umbrella@lemmy.ml 21 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (1 children)

[deleted]

[–] freebee@sh.itjust.works 4 points 3 months ago (2 children)

Most countries will be raising taxes on fuel even more and in general it will become less available fast: gas stations, mechanics who know how to fix the ICE old timers etc. it will become a hobby thing (like old timers today already). Certain niches will keep ICE way longer (heavy construction vehicles etc) but it will suddenly become quite rare in 20 or 30 years to see a regular old ICE driven by a regular person doing regular things like commuting or so.

[–] Analog@lemmy.ml 2 points 3 months ago

For heavy construction vehicles only three main factors need to align: normal replacement schedule, enough capacity for the heaviest day (which is quite predictable in many industries,) and the charging infrastructure.

The last one is a major hurdle and is holding back EVs on all levels already. In the US it is also the least likely to see improvement anytime soon

[–] folaht@lemmy.ml 7 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) (2 children)

I don't think that's bold.
It's already at 25% last month and 50+% in China.

[–] wewbull@feddit.uk 7 points 3 months ago

It's only the timescale I'm unsure about.

[–] Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

A majority of Chinas EVs outside of Shenzhen are hybrids. Unless youre counting vespas, there's way more electrics.

[–] Scrollone@feddit.it 5 points 3 months ago

I think the EU has plans to stop the sale of ICEs in 10 years, so... that could start a snowball effect.

[–] DoucheBagMcSwag@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 points 3 months ago (1 children)

I believe this.. But the USA being an exception

[–] slaneesh_is_right@lemmy.org 2 points 3 months ago

They are rolling coal in the wasteland while civilised people live in the clouds, jetsons style