this post was submitted on 16 Feb 2025
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While I agree with the general sentiment and am firmly in the camp of wishing for an amicable breakup, I just dont see the mass movement needed for a country to formally split. The prevailing public opinion seems to be that the country is in danger and needs saving, with each side having vastly different ideas of what that means.
Personally, I foresee the US transitioning more akin to Rome. A Republic and then gradually an Empire. I think we are in that transition now. The republic is already dead in all but ritual and I think the goal of Trump/Elon/Republicans is to begin the phase out of those rituals so that the new Empire can stand.
We have been a republic, and arguably we've been an empire in a republic's clothing since the cold war. We're speedrunning the mid-late imperial stage at this point where we stop pretending we're still a republic (mid) and sell off the government's administrative capacity for scrap and hand it all off to wealthy elites (late). That's significant because along with the government blowing up it's administrative capacity to hand it off to elites, it also destroys its legitimacy and opens the door for new, local governments to spring up. The cool thing about the US is that we already have pre-fabricated local governments ready to go, complete with their own state constitutions.
Modern power is based on more than having a bunch of people carrying swords. It's based on having the economic capacity to build more advanced fighters,, tanks, ships and having some soldiers to work it all, while maintaining the infrastructure to advance the technology that all those toys use.
The US didn't crush USSR in the jungles of Vietnam. It crushed it in the kitchens and living rooms of Europe and much of the rest of the world.
Now Trump is attacking the very source of the US' strength. The US never needed to occupy any of their allies capitals, to put tanks on the streets of Toronto, Manchester or Munich. NATO countries (despite Kremlin talking points) willingly joined NATO. Now, Trump wants to destroy all that because he doesn't understand it. A real estate developer of the worst kind.
The real nail in the coffin is that about 1/3 of the people of the US are cheering him on right now. Another third don't bother to vote. And Presidential authority is now akin to that of a monarch.