this post was submitted on 27 Jan 2025
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I wonder. Maybe Putin and Trump had a backroom deal that if US pulls out of Europe, then Putin will go on the negotiating table to end the war in Ukraine, and Trump is using the argument of "free riding Europeans" as convenient pretext. Trump is showing to Putin that the West is de-escalating by withdrawing American troops. After all, the Russian president is complaining of NATO encroachment. American troop withdrawal is indeed evidence for de-escalation.
Then at the same time, Trump wants to pivot against China. The US troops in Europe could be redeployed to Asia.
This is simply my speculation and there could be more to this than we would know publicly.
also a good reason to make such a fuss about greenland:
well if they won't let us protect them, perhaps we should just leave NATO...
smoke mirrors and bullshit, it's all they have
Trump is not as dumb as people make him out to be (he would not remain a billionaire if he's that dumb), I reckon he's got some sort of plan (or rather a concept of a plan). His wildcard, unpredictable foreign policy harkens back to Gaullism, when Charles De Gaulle pulled France out of NATO, because he is simply annoyed by the Anglos, and France is being France who loves being maverick pursuing its own independent interest. In the end, France pulling out of NATO was a nothingburger, because France has still been a nominal military ally of the West throughout and France eventually returned to NATO. That being said, Trump could be doing something similar and maybe he doesn't even realise it. Trump's current wildcard foreign policy is still driven by nationalist self-interests, which is follows oddly similar pattern to De Gaulle's.
I don't think supposedly remaining a billionaire necessarily correlates with intelligence.
With enough money or influence, you get money. No need to be clever or sound.
There are plenty of rich people who lost their wealth-- mostly due to stupidity because they became decadent and resting on their laurels, believing their luck will last forever, like Charlie Sheen. Trump could have done the same and he has had plenty of lawsuits. And yet he's still here. Edit: going on tangent, that being said, I would argue it's far easier to lose money than to keep them.
As someone mentioned, Trump's antics are all smoke and mirrors for distraction. But didn't realise that someone totally dumb would not be doing that all. The greatest trick that the devil pulled is make everyone believe he is stupid and harmless.
And Trump lost a lot of money at times, if you think back 2 or so years, it was unclear whether the descriptor "billionaire" was still accurate
A multi-millionaire can lose their money, a billionaire gets more than they can spend just by having it
sure buddy. 4d chess. from a man who suggested bright lights and bleach for covid.
doubt.
I don't want to give too much credit to Trump, but there is realpolitik reason for him wanting to take Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal. For him, it is securing perceived gap in American national security, but he's doing it in old school imperialist way as if there's no international law (think of Putin's reason for invading Ukraine because he thinks the latter is the soft underbelly from which to attack Russia, even though before the invasion everyone thought it would be stupid of Putin to invade a country that historically hated Kremlin).
Anyhow, as Sun Tzu said: never underestimate the opponent. There's a reason Trump is a billionaire and the leader of the most powerful country in the world, while both of us are not any of those. People can be dumb, but not that dumb. People have also thought the same of Hitler, and he caused massive chaos before going down stupidly.
Why the Hitler comparison? The idea that people thought Hitler was stupid in particular seems like something that would need backup.
Modern day Germans themselves say Hitler's style is very comical. The Mein Kampf is basically incoherent ramblings. So it's very likely that 1930-40s Germans also thought the same of Hitler. Nonetheless, he still managed to be influential and capture the imagination and attention of the world (I will get to that later).
It's a misleading to think of intelligence as being broadly both knowledgeable and rational. Many psychologists are now rethinking what intelligence means. For many, intelligence means excelling more at specific cognitive ability. It's well known that autistic folks are extremely skillful at certain things, even if they lack skills or knowledge in others. That being said, an AskHistorians post discussed about that many people did think Hitler was stupid. But if he is that dumb, he would not be able to rile up the emotion of masses and gain power now, would he not? Would a conventionally stupid person be able to pull that and attain power? Politicians and authoritarians are able to exploit gaps to take power for themselves. That still takes certain skills and cognitive ability that most of us don't have. Ancient Greek philosophers have already observed how demagogues manages to convince the average people to vote certain way. Trump have done the same.
Cope all we want and call someone dumb all we want, but we're not the ones in charge. We have said the same to other dictators like Gaddafi, Amin, Mussolini and Hitler. Even if they got themselves killed at the end and lacking foresight to realise never get too drunk in power, but they're the ones who got grabbed the reins of power and lasted for as long as they could. That again take certain skills (even if they are lacking in other areas).
Maybe the we're the ones who are dumb for not seeing it. The ones in the White House, in the fiftieth floor of GM or Facebook headquarters, or presidential palace; those with power are thinking those in prisons, receptionists working for bare minimum wage, kids working to mine lithium for Tesla's electric battery for its vehicle, and a mother of two working two jobs to make ends meet are still the dumb ones electing and worshipping them rich. And those who think of themselves as "smart" are probably the ones who are actually dumb for underestimating a supposed dumb person who are in power.
and it makes sense if you're a twelve year old, or, if you want to destroy NATO and our country's other alliances.
He's wrecking the fucking place, you dolt.
Cancelling NIH funding, leaving the WHO, jerking around our allies with bullshit... open your damned eyes.
Look, learn the basics of realpolitik, then come back. I'm not defending Trump, I'm explaining why he does what he does. A lot of people don't understand what dry analysis is especially in realpolitik. I linked an article from an esteemed site explaining Trump's motivation so that's a start.
Is what Trump doing stupid? Sure. But for him it's not with respect to his nativist, nationalistic agenda. He's going back to old school imperialism and unilateralism of a more powerful imperialistic nation state. People said the same of Hitler as being stupid, but no one can't doubt he had been influential. In spite of losing the attempted coup, Hitler had been able to use the political system to gain power after all, and enact his own vision of ultra nationalism and shape the world to his liking. Still sounds dumb, does it? It's the same with Trump. And again, Trump is the one in charge, not you nor I, so he's not dumb in his own right.
Keep underestimating the opponent, and you're the one who will actually lose. A lot of people underestimated Hitler and his partner Mussolini and look what happened. You can imagine what Trump must be saying to us now that he's back again in power.
Dude Realpolitik is not about ignoring effects getting rid of all your allies has, making yourself a pariah. That's not dry analysis it is, as you correctly point out, stupidity.
If you had invoked geopolitical "realism" (as they call it) you would have a point: Because that stuff is inherently stupid. But it's also not Realpolitik, which does not actually eschew ethics, it just has its own particular branch (Verantwortungsethik), prioritising ethical means over ethical ends.
We're still falling into the pitfalls of not understanding the other side. Trump is running on nativist agenda. He doesn't necessarily care about maintaining allies for the United States. If he does, it's about alliance of convenience.
And since he's running on nativist agenda, he is doing so because he knows that many Americans are tired of globalisation and internationalism. The outsourcing made people lose jobs without alternatives being offered. Endless foreign interventions motivated by corporate greed under the guise of human rights protection. That's what the people want to be addressed and that's Trump's policies are based from. His platform did not come out of the vacuum and the people simply ate it up. He knows where the wind is heading and used it to sail to his advantage while the rest wants to remain on the previous course (i.e. the status quo). Who is the smart and dumb one? The smart one is certainly the one who's in charge now and steering the rudder. There is nothing wrong giving credit to where it's due but people are afraid to acknowledge the truth; which what made them lose.
Nah. He's the less stupid one. Liberals within the Democratic party backstabbing Bernie and gaslighting the people about the people's own economical woes are the real stupid ones, the reason slightly less stupid could win.
I agree to an extent. But you're assuming that Democrats do not know what they're doing. The know exactly what they're doing and that is to appease the same rich donors who support the Republicans. That's why the current Democrat leadership is not going to be progressive because they still want to make money from stocks and receiving corporate donations. From the outside, what the liberal Democrats are doing is dumb, but if you know precisely what they're intentions are, it's smart from their own point of view.