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this post was submitted on 19 Aug 2023
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politics
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Covid has been devastating and has likely affected more R voters, but I don't think it will be enough to cause an electoral shift.
Red states have had a lower life is expectancy for years. Covid just added to that effect, but I don't think it's that much worse than any of the other confounding effects (like lower access to affordable health care or healthy food). On the contrary, it's probably much less than that.
I’d guess electorally it’ll be similar, but by count it’ll be a larger gap this time. Not that popular votes matter in the us
There's been roughly 1 million Covid deaths in the US since the pandemic started. Given a very gracious split of 70-30% between R-D voters, it means that there was a net loss of 400k Republican voters. (I hate to be talking about 1M lives lost in such a dry way)
During the 2020 presidential elections, Biden won the popular vote by 7 million votes. Even with ignoring the fact that the deadliest part of the pandemic was before the election, it's not enough to have a big enough impact on the popular vote.
In swing states where the difference is 10k votes, that's a whole different story. But then I would say that voter turnout is a much bigger thing to focus on.
Thanks for the numbers, looks like you’re probably right.
Turnout ultimately will be the deciding factor again
Sure as shit didn't help them