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Senators Have a Chance to Halt Weapons Sales to Israel. Will They Take It?
(theintercept.com)
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this post was submitted on 20 Nov 2024
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politics
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With hundreds of millions of lives on the line, nobody should count on religious fanatics to be rational. They aren't rational.
A hedgemony without Isreal is laughable, I agree. I'm not sure what you're getting at though because Israel, and it's nuclear armament, isn't going anywhere. That's the worry: that Iran, with the power of God on its side, will think it could actually defeat Israel and decide to shoot its shot. They cannot beat Israel. It's not a successful pan-islamic caliphate seated in Tehran that I'm worried about.
I'm worried about the aspiring caliphate that wants to destroy Israel and thinks its ordained to do so. It's great that Egypt and Saudi Arabia will resist Iran, but it won't be before at least tens or even hundreds of millions of war refugees flee the area. Where are they going to go? They're going to head to North Africa, the Mediterranean Coast, eastern Europe, central Africa, south western Asia. What's going to happen to those economies and governments? Maybe not all of the surrounding states will collapse, but some of them will for sure. And then what will happen to all the people that live in these collapsing countries, not to mention Iran itself?
You're trying to downplay the seriousness of the threat posed by a fanatic government in Iran because it believes in a model of government that we, as rational people know cannot sustain from its geopolitical position.
What I'm saying is that it will cost tens of millions of lives for Iran to learn that lesson. Tens of millions of more people will be victims of strained economies and governments, many of whom will likely fall permanently into nation-states of Islamic fascism. The strategy of the western world in the middle east needs to be one based on helping Iran understand that it will not win a war against Israel, despite Iran's sincere conviction that it has God in its side.
America absolutely has the conviction to make sure Iran is not successful. Every president in modern memory has said in no uncertain terms that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons while they are in office. The Pentagon's war plans for a war between Iran and Israel calls for millions of American troops on the ground in Israel.
In any event, the 50,000 dead in Gaza will be a forgettable drop in the bucket compared to the casualties that start tallying up if Iran declares war. It would be pretty stupid for America to change its Middle East policy because Israel went ham on 50,000 people when a change in America's policy is likely to prompt a war that will kill millions of people and displace possibly hundreds of millions. It took a year for 50,000 people to die in Gaza; try to imagine what it would be like when 50,000 people are dying everyday before lunchtime.
So let's just be clear that anyone saying that America should pull its support for Israel is not saying so because of any sincere desire to save lives or preserve human rights.
You speak with both sides of your mouth. Somehow America is preventing Iran from invading Israel while also Iran is a loose cannon that will invade anyway. It's horseshit. The one who's going to start a war is Israel. They're the ones committing genocide and they're the ones who actually put boots on the ground in other countries while flagrantly violating the Geneva convention. That's the powder keg the US has enabled and will continue to enable by giving full support to fascist governments. It won't provide stability or security. All it provides is an absolute liability. And you're beyond delusional if you think Americans will accede to the Pentagon's war plans once the bodies start flying in.
Hmm okay, your strong feelings aside, no, Iran is not likely to invade Israel if we maintain the existing defensive posture, which we will, and which includes the threat of American air support and ground troops, and which, brace yourself, has been working very effectively.
The Supreme Leader can throw the hardliners a few "crumbs" such as October 7 to say "see look how hard our boys are fighting the infidels, hang in there were gonna win this thing" and they will keep the immamate in power, keep relative peace in downtown Tehran, mask on. The problem is the supreme leader, being as he is a human, might have faculties that start to deteriorate and the seat of his power might start being exercised irrationally.
I'm going to assume now that since you suppose to know what Americans will accede to you are American. Your general opinion as to Gaza aren't shared by virtually anyone in Washington, DC. And obviously you know, rhetoric aside, you live in a liberal democracy for which you are pretty thankful. You can do the math, which is objective, but you must know that your description of Israel as anything other than a flawed, young liberal democracy, is not taken as anything more than hyperbole. Obviously Israel is not a fascist government, nor is the US government, as long as our liberal democratic institutions stand. Hamas, the Iranian immamate, the Qatari royal family, on the other hand, whose general rhetoric as to Gaza you agree with, are actually fascists: no trial by jury, no due process, no electoral oversight, no judicial oversight, laws can be changed at the whim of church muckity mucks, any rights granted can be as instantly taken, religious police, with summary executions, are an actual thing in Iran, in Qatar, in Gaza. Ya know, for-real fascism, no rhetoric.
So you should at least ask why you are siding with actual for-real fascists against the virtually unanimous opinions of your own liberal democratic government's leadership, and not even with their TV news rhetoric, but with their actual votes in Congress. Do you have any sense of dissonance here? If you think they are all wrong, that I'm wrong, and that you have it all figured out, maybe you can offer some explanation for the fact that despite the horrific "fully fascist" genocide, going on more than a year, 99% of everyone in Gaza is still alive. Seems like you're the one who's talking out of both sides of your mouth.
Oh of course, who ever heard of a neoliberal state going off the rails and planning delusional foreign policy. I'm obviously some way off base nutjob for suggesting such a thing. Since you want to deny the genocide that's happening, though, I don't really see the point in continuing.