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this post was submitted on 25 Oct 2024
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Tx has been moving towards flipping blue.
Clinton lost by ~800,000 votes (5% of registered voters) and Biden lost by ~640,000 votes (~3.5% of registered voters). This year, TX is breaking records for early voting turnout, and, historically speaking, Democrats win with high turnout. In just 4 days, TX has cast almost 1/4 as many votes as the entire 2020 election and that's during the first week of early voting when the polls are only required to be open 9 hours a day. We still haven't seen the turnout for this weekend or next week, when polls are open at least 12 hours a day.
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/g2024?count_prefix=final_eday_voted_count_&state=TX&view_type=state
My bet is hard core trump support from Texas this year.
There will be Trump supporters for sure. But don't forget Trump received more votes in CA than TX in 2020 and Biden received more votes in TX than NY.
Hopefully Millenials and Gen Z will step up this election to keep the Republicans from bringing back the Lavender Scare.
Well, fewer people in California were blocked from voting 😅
Lupe Valdez's 3.5M votes in 2018 was about the same number of votes Beto received in 2022. The shrinking gulf is largely coming from a sag in Republican turnout year-over-year. And GOP favorables aren't so bad that the party doesn't consistently beat Democrats in high turnout races.
Maybe this year will be a game changer, but Dems would have to beat a 5-7 pt pad for Trump and at least a 4 pt pad for Cruz. Not holding my breath.