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this post was submitted on 24 Oct 2024
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As opposed to what, doing the same thing every election in the hopes that it will somehow turn out differently this time?
Every time the Dems look left they lose. They go to the center because they lose control (they need all 3 houses to do anything), so they go to the center to find voters. They've had control of all 3 houses for, drumroll please, 4 of the last 24 years. Want them to stop going to the center? Them give them victories.
I wish more people could understand this. Or even made an effort to.
Note how Barqs did not specify which years those were, that's because the answer would contradict their point. Half of those four years were Obama's first, after he campaigned to the left on a message of hope and change but before his actual administration revealed him to be just another moderate.
Obama's policy positions were quite moderate, people just liked his branding.
As opposed to trying to make things better and avoid more suffering for everyone.
Accelerationists have never lived through what they claim to want because if they did, and lived, they would no longer be accelerationists.
Accelerationists won't have to live with the consequences because they don't originate in the US.
I'm not an accellerationist, and as a transgender furry from a red state I'd hazard a bet that I've got more consequences to worry about than you do.
Quit treating treating politics like a team sport. This is not a game, this is a life or death struggle to take the reigns of the American Empire in time to do something about the climate, the genocide, the economy, and everything.
I'll take you at your word, which is trying, but even if true I prefaced my statement with original. This means you're part of the plan, and you would have to be. Though you may not identify as accelerationist your existence is spurred on and enunicated by a foreign effort to defeat America by turning it on itself.
Edit: My bad
Again, I'm not an accelerationist. I'm a "Stop doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result"-ist.
And don't tell me you'll take me at my word and then immediately do the opposite. It makes me suspect that you are the thing you accuse me of being.
The only way you can look at the world right now and say "we're doing the same thing over and over" is if you choose to ignore unfathomable swaths of nuance in some reductionist attempt to protect your own sense of self-righteousness.
Electorally, I disagree. The Democrats have been triangulating towards the "center" since before I was born while the Republicans keep tacking right. When Trump loses and the post-election, post-failed-coup-part-deux infighting tears the Republican party apart, the Democrats will be the new right-wing.
I don't really disagree with this, and in fact it sounds optimistic to me, provided you're asserting that a new party will be born from the broken duopoly that your prediction will cause. Which you may not be. I'm not trying to put words in your mouth.
Edit: On second thought, I do somewhat disagree, as watching the democratic party flirt with and ultimately push back against a Candidate Sanders in 2016 definitely seems like a deviation from the plot-line you've presented. I can envision a future in which the Dem party is captured by further left factions as young people grow up and become more and more engaged with electoralism.
That is indeed the case. The new left will come out of the growing union movement, the existing third-parties aren't capable of filling that niche.
Nah, Bernie Sanders was the last off-ramp away from this future. There was a chance the DNC could have embraced a left turn, but when instead they started openly conspiring against Bernie in 2015, they locked us into the path they put us on now. They'd ratfuck him in the primary, Trump was going to win 2016, that was going to suck badly enough that any Democrat could win 2020, and the "moderate" they'd pick for the job would be so milquetoast that the party would have to drop them from the ticket to keep Trump from winning 2024.
Now all that has come to pass, and the Democrats are positioning themselves to be the new business-friendly, pro-genocide bad guys for the unions to organize a party against. We might be getting the "good" future after all.
Sounds like you've got it all figured out.
Good luck out there, and keep an eye out for that hindsight bias, it'll creep up on ya'.
This isn't hindsight, it was foresight. I posted these specific predictions on Twitter in 2015.
I figured the Democrats would be unlikely to convince the incumbent to drop out of this election, but if they did it'd swing the entire race. Literally nothing that has happened in the last 9.5 years surprised me more than Nancy Pelosi successfully talking Biden down from the campaign.
Alright. Given that you've said when Trump loses, rather than if, I'd love to get some insight into why it is you predict that he's going to lose.
I have a hard time explaining this succinctly because a full understanding requires a deep knowledge of history, political theory, economic theory, the character of the DNC and RNC, the newsmedia ecosystem, and literal years spent obsessing over the weediest of discourse to parse out all the relevant bits and vibes.
The single biggest factor here is the "Business community", the C-suite class that controls the lion's share of political power in America. Very few of them saw much benefit from the Trump administration beyond the tax breaks, and the chaos of those years was generally bad for business. Harris promises to be a stabilizing influence for them, to the point that even some "moderate" Republicans have switched sides and openly endorsed her.
Next up is the demographic factor. Republican attrition due to their higher rates of Covid casualties, an older electorate, and lack of youth appeal means they are starting from an even weaker position than when they lost in 2020. So much so that even their lead in Texas has fallen below the margin of error. I couldn't have predicted Covid back in 2015, but it has only accelerated the rate of decline.
Lastly, I'll detail the "break from the past". Obama cruised into office with record turnout for a campaign of hope and change that still resonates deeply with voters of both parties. Ditching the incumbent and running a first-term VP instead is seen as a signal of generational turnover, one that the GOP can't claim while re-running a septuagenerian. Even without explicit promises of hope and change, a young new candidate still represents that desire.
There are obviously dozens more factors that go into this calculus, but this should suffice as a starting point.
Oh hey, my post-election predictions are already coming true. Even a former RNC chair is talking about burning it all down and starting over: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/27/republican-party-never-trump-rebuild
You call yourself what ever you like. I'll refer to you as, useful idiot.
Edit: If I were a foreign actor I'm either very incompetent or am a genius for egging on you doubling down.
I see you have taken the mask off entirely.
If you were genuinely invested in the election, you'd be desperately trying to find common ground in the hopes of convincing me to vote for your preferred candidate.
Instead, you're being both dismissive and disrespectful without even putting in the effort to ensure that the insult hits home, exactly the sort of behavior one would expect from a low-effort troll.
Lucky for you, I'm autistic enough to enjoy feeding the trolls~.
No mask? What mask? I straight up can't argue against this shit anymore. You want to hump dust go, hump dust.
Are you OK?
You don't care get out of here with your concern troll bullshit.
I'm genuinely asking, you seem like there's some kind of problem..
Brah
What's wrong?
We are not friends. I think you're profoundly in the wrong. Go concern troll somewhere else.
Well now I'm positive, because nothing disturbs a troll more than people expressing genuine concern for them.
Doing the same thing you've always done isn't "trying to make things better", it's "trying to make things stay the same".
If you want to avoid suffering, you have to be against genocide.
My opinion is that you're incorrect inside wrong wrapped in no.
But I appreciate you're hanging in there because I'm pretending you really care about stopping genocide. In the United States you could work for the BIA if you really cared about these things but I don't know what the options are wherever you are.
The Bureau of Indian Affairs?
Check your privilege
You're kidding, right?
If you weren't paying attention, I'm a transgender furry. I've been personally targeted by Nazis long before Trump declared people like me to be enemies of America.
Do you think I am not painfully aware of what is at stake here?
I for one do think that.
Then there's no convincing you of anything.
Not much of anything you've been talking about, no.
I mean, that or all the angry young/middle age voters could, gasp show up to the primaries and move the party to the direction they'd like to see. Instead, the elderly voters, despite being a much smaller share of the population, outvote the heck out of them.
If folks like you paid attention to politics when it matters, not just when it was trendy, things would be a lot different.
Then again, reading what you've written, maybe it's for the best y'all don't.
I love the idealism, I lost mine decades ago.
Realistically, this is America we're talking about. A literal pandemic that killed millions was only worth a 16% bump in the total vote count. The sooner you come to terms with the fact that this country is not and has never been a real democracy, the sooner you'll be able to stop relying on the electoral system to save the world.
Also, I resent the assertion that I don't pay attention to politics. I pay too much attention to politics. To the point that I predicted this exact scenario for the 2024 election back in 2015 when the DNC first started openly conspiring against Bernie, months before they ratfucked him out of the primary. I was the only person among my family and friends not to be surprised when Hillary lost in 2016. I knew the incumbent for 2024 would have to drop out to give the VP a chance at winning against Trump literally years before we learned that Biden was going to be that incumbent. I feel like Cassandra, cursed with foreknowledge that none will heed.
Anyways, the problem isn't "trends" or a lack of interest from the youth, the fundamental issue is that electoral politics is a trap. Do vote in local and national elections, of course, but if voting is all you're putting your energy into then you're doing it wrong. And our political media ecosystem is designed to ensure that most people do it wrong by investing literal billions into election campaign coverage.
The real forefront of American politics is the union movement. Now that they're starting to throw off their old business-friendly management and implementing democratic processes for replacing them, they're taking position to become the driving force behind the new left. Watch for that over the next few years as the Republican party falls apart from the blowback against Trump's attempts to steal the election while the Democrats continue triangulating to the right to pick up the "moderate" leftovers and alienating their own left wing.
I have to ask. Who do you think will win this election?
Harris won the moment Biden dropped out. That's why the Democrats have already started moving right and touting Republican endorsements, they know they've got this election on lock and they're getting a head-start on signalling another "business-friendly" administration.
Trump's supporters will throw a tantrum as reality starts to seep in, so expect a significant increase in stochastic terrorism and maybe even a (dis-)organized coup attempt. There will be casualties, but the true believers have been inflating their numbers to maintain the image of a contestable election and will severely overestimate their ability to overthrow the government.
Thanks. Hope you’re right. We’ll see in 11 days.
It will take longer than that. Even if the Democrats win by a more-than-healthy margin, the Republicans will be doing everything they can to delay and obstruct the final count.