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submitted 2 months ago by BrikoX@lemmy.zip to c/usa@midwest.social

Kamala Harris’s running mate urges popular vote system but campaign says issue is not part of Democrats’ agenda

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[-] njm1314@lemmy.world 2 points 2 months ago

I've been hearing that for a while. Of course then again the people that said that don't seem to have an answer for the fact that in 2022 Republicans swept the entire state by like 10 points. So maybe we should stop counting on that.

[-] kandoh@reddthat.com 2 points 2 months ago

Here's a comparison of Barack Obama's, Hillary Clinton's, and Joe Biden's election results in Texas:

Election Year Democratic Candidate Vote Percentage Republican Candidate Vote Percentage Margin
2012 Barack Obama 41.4% Mitt Romney 57.2% 15.8%
2016 Hillary Clinton 43.2% Donald Trump 52.2% 9.0%
2020 Joe Biden 46.5% Donald Trump 52.1% 5.6%

This is the trend

[-] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 3 points 2 months ago

Here's a comparison of Bill Clinton's, Al Gore's, and Barack Obama's election results in Florida:

Election Year Democratic Candidate Vote Percentage Republican Candidate Vote Percentage Margin
1992 Bill Clinton 39.0% George H. W. Bush 40.89% -1.89%
2000 Al Gore 48.84% George W. Bush 48.85% -0.01%
2008 Barack Obama 50.91% John McCain 48.09% +2.82%

Florida is reliably blue now, right? Since 2010, the Hispanic proportion of the state has grown by 5 percentage points while the white proportion has shrunk by a similar number. It's gotta be like Dem +8 by now.

[-] kandoh@reddthat.com -1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Florida is different because conservatives move there when they retire or to escape COVID restrictions. And don't forget, those Latinos in Florida are Cuban, so race isn't as good an indicator.

Texas is really opposite. It's getting large influxes of left-wing voters each year.

[-] Zaktor@sopuli.xyz 2 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Yes yes, we all have our post hoc excuses for why a state with a historical trend toward the Democrats didn't continue on. All of those excuses were happening when Florida was getting bluer. It'd be great if all we needed to do was kick our feet up and demographics would solve our political problems, but this isn't a new idea. People in 2000s thought the Democrats would have a permanent majority by now. Turns out the money behind the Republican party isn't going to just sit back and let them wither into nothingness.

In 10 years we'll have a good excuses for Texas too. It will be obvious that some Hispanic group was going to turn conservative because they were fleeing failures in nominally left wing states, or were very religious, or had a machismo culture or something. The young people moving to Texas for economic opportunities will be scared away by the abortion bans. Or they'll crank their media propaganda to 11. Or maybe Texas really will go blue and we'll have an entirely different set of turning-point states. The Democrats weren't doomed to be unable to win the presidency because Florida is no longer a swing state and somehow after all the Republican's failures and odious behavior we're still in a toss up now.

If it was a simple matter of waiting for Democrats to break the cycle and win forever, it would have happened by now. People have been predicting the impending collapse of the Republican party for decades.

[-] njm1314@lemmy.world 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

Actually a lot of people moving to Texas tend to be conservative from other states moving explicitly for the politics. Conservatives from California in particular.

For instance in Ted Cruz's last election he got a higher percentage of Voters from new residents than he did from native Texans and of course the inverse.

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2018/11/09/native-texans-voted-for-native-texan-beto-o-rourke-transplants-went-for-ted-cruz-exit-poll-shows/

[-] ShellMonkey@lemmy.socdojo.com 1 points 2 months ago

I don't think we can cite a trend when the last two, soon to be there rounds have been with Trump on the R side. A sizable part of the gains can be attributed to people desperately looking to keep him out rather than any grand shift in attitudes of the state.

Look at the results for Governor and that with the way they've behaved on immigration, abortion, educational standards. That should be more telling.

this post was submitted on 09 Oct 2024
518 points (97.8% liked)

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