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this post was submitted on 06 Sep 2024
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Economics
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Just remember that of the last 12 months, there's been something like 11 downward revisions. The bureau of Labor statistics has been doing an abysmal job with its preliminary numbers.
I'm not saying to completely disregard the data, but in a previous month I ended up making the mistake of listening to some of the old podcasts I used to listen to from NPR and APM regarding money, and I don't remember which one but one of them was just going on and on about how good the numbers were with absolutely no mention of the fallibility of those numbers.
Just to clarify by downward you mean revised downward in the emotionally negative sense not the actual number shrinking right? If I can recall they have been increasing the numbers largely with each revision.
I think the fed takes this into account for what it’s worth, and have a sense of how much to emphasize the data. I might trust them too much but only time will tell on that!
The job numbers have been revised in a downward direction pretty consistently[1]. The year over year numbers from the BLS were revised massively downwards a few weeks ago, by 800,000 jobs.[2]
[1] https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/careers/the-biden-admin-has-overcounted-new-jobs-almost-every-single-month-this-year/ar-AA1jlasf
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/nonfarm-payroll-growth-revised-down-by-818000-labor-department-says.html
Ah I see, I’m confusing unemployment rate with the jobs top line figure. Thank you.