Economics

Brent crude benchmark rose to more than $80 a barrel, its steepest increase since ceasefire began

Oil markets have recorded their sharpest price rise in nearly two months after a series of attacks on fossil fuel tankers near the strait of Hormuz led Donald Trump to declare that the ceasefire deal with Iran was over.

At the same time, UK short-dated bonds suffered their worst day since the end of March as the prospect grew of a Bank of England rate rise to cope with the renewed inflationary pressures.

The yield or interest rate on two-year gilts rose 15 basis points to 4.35% with a rate rise in November fully priced in and a 50% chance of another in December. The market gave a 75% chance to one rate increase by the end of the year earlier this week.

• The economy added 57,000 jobs in June, with nearly all job growth coming from health care and social assistance.
• The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent, but the employment-to-population ratio fell to its lowest level since June 2021.
• Prime-age employment declined sharply, especially among men, signaling potential weakness in the labor market despite low unemployment.
• Wage growth slowed to 3.5 percent year over year, lagging recent inflation and reflecting softer labor demand.
• Hotels, restaurants, insurance, and motion picture industries lost jobs, while women accounted for more than all net payroll job growth.
• There is still no evidence of an AI-driven jobs apocalypse, as productivity growth remains modest and concentrated job gains point to a cooling — not collapsing — labor market.

tværpostet fra: https://feddit.dk/post/23061809

Exploiting the unique institutional setting of Hong Kong’s real estate market, we uncover a curious ripple effect of haunted houses on the prices of nearby houses. Prices drop on average 19% for units that become haunted, 9% for units on the same floor, 6% for units in the same block, and 1% for units in the same estate. Our study makes two contributions. First, we provide an estimate of a large negative spillover on prices caused by a quality shock. Second, we find that the demand shock rather than the fire sale supply shock explains most of the spillover.

The report marked the slowest month of hiring since February, when hiring contracted.

The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, a worrying sign for labor market stability as wage growth tracked below inflation for a third consecutive month.

In June, average hourly earnings increased by 3.5%, which remains far below the most recent inflation reading of 4.2%.

The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3%. June’s total was the lightest month of hiring since February, when the labor market contracted.

Eye-opening discussion with billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham about economics, AI, climate change, and fertility.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32u5T6lO8qk

@economics

@climate

@publichealth@mander.xyz

#economics #MachineLearning #ClimateChange #PublicHealth #PSA

OpenAI is considering holding off on its public debut until next year, the New York Times reported ‌on Thursday, citing three people involved in the company's deliberations.

The AI startup, which has confidentially filed for a U.S. initial public offering, is targeting a valuation of up to $1 trillion, Reuters has reported, adding Chief Financial ⁠Officer Sarah Friar has told some associates the company is aiming for a 2027 listing.

OpenAI's advisers presented company executives with the option of waiting until 2027 to go public with a $1 trillion valuation, or lower the targeted valuation for a quicker listing, NYT said. CEO Sam Altman responded that any change to the trillion-dollar valuation was a non-starter.

Former US Federal Reserve chair Alan Greenspan has died aged 100, his wife has said.

NBC News correspondent Andrea Mitchell said in a statement reported by her employer that her husband had died from complications of Parkinson's Disease.

Mitchell's statement said Greenspan was "a giant of a man who helped shape the US economy for decades under presidents of both parties, but was always honest in acknowledging his mistakes".

US central bank makes decision in first meeting under new chair and Trump appointee Kevin Warsh

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged for the fourth time this year after its first meeting under new chair, Kevin Warsh, a Donald Trump appointee who has taken over the central bank during a tumultuous time for the US economy.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the Middle East,” the Fed’s open market committee said in a short statement. “Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

The Fed was widely expected to keep rates at a range of 3.5% to 3.75%, where it has remained since December.

cross-posted from: https://lemmy.sdf.org/post/54733640

Archived

China’s consumer spending may have contracted for the first time since the pandemic, a setback that would extend a slowdown in an economy whose momentum is faltering despite booming trade.

[...]

Absent stronger demand at home, the economy is set to shift down a gear this quarter as it navigates the disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East while the government dials back spending.

Although exports are proving largely immune to the upheaval in shipping and energy markets, some analysts estimate that China’s growth slowed to roughly 4 per cent in April, tracking below the government’s official full-year target of 4.5 to 5 per cent.

“Soft Chinese domestic activity data is likely an omen of decelerating growth in the second quarter, even as external demand remains strong,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank. “While there appears to be limited urgency for now, China still has room for monetary easing this year if it’s needed.”

[...]

Higher energy prices stemming from the war in Iran are adding further risk to what’s already a bumpy outlook, especially if companies begin to pass on more of their cost increases to consumers.

[...]

A decline in retail sales in May would mark their first monthly drop since the country reopened after Covid-19 in late 2022. The drop is in large part a form of payback for a government programme that encouraged households to trade in old consumer goods, prompting them to bring forward their purchases.

Car sales plunged more than 22 per cent in May from a year earlier in the sixth straight month of double-digit declines. The government has scaled back subsidies for electric vehicle purchases this year, while the Iran oil shock hurt sales of petrol-powered cars.

[...]

Fixed-asset investment (FAI) ...[in May] is estimated to fall 7 per cent on year following a 8.2 per cent slump the previous month, Goldman Sachs economists led by Andrew Tilton wrote in a Friday note. They blamed heavy rainfall and a heat wave in different parts of the country and the slow pace of government bond issuance for the weakness.

[...]

The government lowered public spending in March and April as bond sales decelerated. Authorities likely felt comfortable with the economy’s first-quarter performance, while economists also pointed to a potential lack of eligible projects.

[...]

“Domestic demand remains weak,” Huachuang Securities economists, including Zhang Yu, wrote in a note earlier this month.

“What stands out is the industrial output reading under high oil prices – if it continues to stay soft, it could signal a risk that second-quarter economic growth falls below the target range,” they said, referring to Beijing’s annual expansion goal.

Fox Corp. is buying streaming platform Roku in a cash-and-stock deal valued at approximately $22 billion, including debt.

The deal will give Fox access to the Roku channel, first-party data and more than 100 million global streaming households. Fox oversees a massive media network that includes sports, news and entertainment, as well as Tubi.

The companies said Monday that Roku will continue t be run as an open, partner-friendly platform. Fox and Roku said that the combined company will become the third-largest player in U.S. television by share of viewing.

They measured happiness and income. Obviously this is not a controlled trial, so there are strong confounders with wealth/family/access to credit.

Still, in CA those who did best financially made incorporated businesses early and pushed to grow, while independent contractors had a pretty rough time. Happy folks gained expertise in a field and then incorporated (making less money, but still more than usual employment, and feeling pretty good about the whole thing).