we have to be very careful not to understate the seriousness of the situation Ukraine is in right now.

I agree, every day of this war is a horrible injustice to Ukraine, they did everything they could to appease Putin and Russia, short of sacrificing their sovereignty. And even before the war, Ukraine was forceed to sacrifice Crimea.
But still Putin demanded they sacrificed their sovereignty completely.

Let’s hope the Russian offensive culminates soon

I think it already has culminated. Although Russia keep pushing, it's at the cost of twice as many personnel as before, but they spend fewer than half the tanks and missiles, because they are running out of equipment. Even artillery they had absolutely massive amounts of, they now need to get from North Korea!

Allegedly Putin has been calling for a ceasefire for a while now, for instance sending first the Hungarian PM Orban, and India's PM Modi after to plead for a ceasefire on his behalf. They agreed on a prisoner exchange that vastly benefited the west, because Putin is probably being desperate.
Putin hates to show weakness like this, but he probably has no choice, maybe because the Russian economy is becoming extremely strained.

Maybe I just see what I wish to see, obviously I'm extremely biased (with good reason) in favor of Ukraine. But it does seem Russia is declining along the trajectory some maybe even many predicted already 2 years ago.