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this post was submitted on 29 Aug 2024
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The problem with replacing the A-10 is the lack of wing space for hard points. Everyone thinks about the gun but the real thing the A-10 brought was 11 hard points and a 7600kg weight budget for them. That means 30 500 pound guided munitions. And hours to use them.
The F 35 in beast mode carries around half the hard points but the same weight, and the strike eagle carries around 2/3rds. So the question becomes about economy. This plane carries half the hard points and half the weight.
So the question becomes economics. In a world of F-35s and Strike Eagles is it cheaper to keep them grounded and source, train, maintain, and fly the scorpion. The answer is no. In fact the 2 main arguments for keeping the A-10 for the last 40 years have been, we already have them, and they are the best aircraft for the job. We're not going to buy another unless it is also the best plane for the job.
All good points. I just want to add that the issue with the f35 afaik is the long down time for every hour of flight, and cost per hour. That could be overcome with cheaper planes. But like you say, is it really worth a whole new manned system.
As I understand it, the Armed Overwatch pick that would at least sometimes replace the A-10 for close air support is the OA-1K Sky Warden, which has 10 hard points, and a 7,257kg gross weight. I don't know how to accurately calculate the Sky Warden's weight budget, but it's a little more than half of the gross weight of the A-10, so I'd guess it's roughly half, or 3,500kg or so. Which is definitely a step down in terms of weight and ability, but I guess the hope is that it will be cheaper to fly and maintain, particularly since it's based off the long-running Air Tractor AT-802 airframe. I think the other two planes in consideration, the EMB-314 Super Tucano and the AT-6B Wolverine, have fewer hard points (5 each) and lower maximum take-off weights (5,400kg and 2,948kg, respectively).
It'll be somewhere in the 3,000ish kg between it's dry weight and it's max take off weight. Also of note to my earlier bit SOCOM got this money directly and will control these planes directly. And the GAO is not happy about it. Especially that SOCOM ordered 75 of them, which is enough to put 10 in each region. Basically they don't want to have to ferry them around, even though that's part of their selling point. However I think GAO has the same question I do. What is wrong with the MQ-9 and eight hellfire missiles? What is SOCOM thinking they're getting into that they need more than the 300 MQ-9 Predators already available largely just to them?
If I had to take a guess the Sky Warden's ordnance carry isn't even that much higher than the MQ-9, about 900 kg or 2,000 pounds more. (Max minus dry weight, fuel, and 10 percent for other equipment, less if you want to use drop tanks)