Idk, it probably depends on where you ride. I mostly ride on dry bike paths, and I always store my bike inside. If I were riding on wet roads/muddy paths, I'd probably lube more often.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 3 points 3 hours ago* (last edited 3 hours ago)

Yeah, that could lead to pre-mature flaking of the wax. But the question is, is it closer to 200 miles, or the average time most people do between lubes (I do the shorter of 500 miles, every season, or if I went on a nasty wet ride).

What we are talking about is the act of reading and/or learning and then using that information in order to synthesize new material.

Sure, but that's not what LLMs are doing. They're breaking down works to reproduce portions of it in answers. Learning is about concepts, LLMs don't understand concepts, they just compare inputs with training data to provide synthesized answers.

The process a human goes through is distinctly different from the process current AI goes through. The process an AI goes through is closer to a journalist copy-pasting quotations into their article, which falls under fair use. The difference is that AI will synthesize quotations from multiple (many) sources, whereas a journalist will generally just do one at a time, but it's still the same process.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 4 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

I just played Pony Island last night, and I might go through and get the tickets, we'll see.

I also installed a few games as well, so I'll probably play a couple of them:

  • Hell Pie
  • Yakuza 3
  • Lair of the Clockwork God
  • Euro Truck Simulator

And then I have a few that I'm partially done with that might get some attention. I'm taking next week off for a family trip, so I don't have to be as responsible about getting to bed at a reasonable time this weekend. :)

If I can work through enough of them, I'll allow myself to buy some more this Steam sale. I have way too many games, so I'm trying to finish (with a loose definition for finish) more than I buy. So far I haven't bought many at all this year (maybe 2?).

The hot wax was gone from the chain in under 200 miles.

Wow, that makes it functionally useless imo. My current approach is really simple:

  1. Clean chain with a cleaning tool - 1-2 min
  2. Rinse and dry with a paper towel - 30s
  3. Add oil lube and dry with a towel - 30s

I do that whenever I remember (and check the chain stretch), and it seems to work pretty well. I keep a bottle of Simple Green for cleaner and dilute ~50/50, then lube with whatever my LBS sells. It seems to do a pretty good job...

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 8 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

And this is why I hate those laws that are intended to protect kids. Yeah, it would be nice if kids couldn't see stuff they shouldn't, but it's even better if my PII isn't stolen. I'd rather my kids accidentally see porn once in a while than for their identity to be stolen.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 3 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

I just watched this on Audit the Audit, so good on this guy for following up. The video was incredibly obvious that the cop was in the wrong. Basically, the video went like this:

  1. Cop pulls Greg over for allegedly giving the middle finger, and the cop terms it a "welfare check" (no other violation); after the stop, Greg allegedly cussed at the trooper as he left (not loud enough to be picked up on body cam)
  2. Greg pulls away and it's obvious from cop dashcam footage that he's not impeding traffic in any way; cop then pulls Greg over again for impeding traffic
  3. Cop orders him out of the car, apparently has called backup, and arrests Greg for obstruction (Greg repeatedly asks what crime he committed, and is not told about impeding traffic)

The first may have been retaliatory (not clear, cop may have been able to defend it as a welfare stop), but the second absolutely was retaliatory and blatantly illegal. I'm surprised the award was only $175k and nothing more happened because it was a clear violation of Greg's constitutional rights, which have been clearly defined through case law to include criticism of the police.

Screw this cop and the entire department that allows this nonsense. This was also on Christmas, which makes it so much worse...

“I was disrespectful,” Bombard conceded of that cold day in 2018. “I don’t think I should have been arrested for it, though.”

Disrespect is protected speech and has been enshrined in case law, and police are expected (again, in case law) to be held to a higher standard than the average citizen. So middle fingers and profanity are absolutely protected speech, just don't commit any actual crimes while expressing yourself because the police will look for a way to arrest you if you're doing that. And there are a lot of technicalities (e.g. when you need to identify yourself, what constitutes a "lawful order," and what "disturbing the peace" means). So if you're driving, drive the speed limit, keep your plates updated, etc if you plan to give police the bird.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 1 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

By quality I meant resolution, I don't need 4k, but I do need specific shows my wife and kids like.

I have a NAS set up with some movies and whatnot, so I've talked to my wife about setting up a budget to purchase content we want and then cancelling our streaming services. So we'd be limited to what's available on DVD/Blu-Ray, but most of what my wife and kids watch are still available there.

The cost isn't the issue, I really hate ads and I'm worried ad-free tiers will go away (or become unreasonably expensive).

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 1 points 6 hours ago* (last edited 6 hours ago)

I disagree that it needs to be explicit. The current law is the fair use doctrine, which generally has more to do with the intended use than specific amounts of the text/media. The point is that humans should know where that limit is and when they've crossed it, with motive being a huge part of it.

I think machines and algorithms should have to abide by a much narrower understanding of "fair use" because they don't have motive or the ability to Intuit when they've crossed the line. So scraping copyrighted works to produce an LLM should probably generally be illegal, imo.

That said, our current copyright system is busted and desperately needs reform. We should be limiting copyright to 14 years (as in the original copyright act of 1790), with an option to explicitly extend for another 14 years. That way LLMs can scrape comment published >28 years ago with no concerns, and most content produced >14 years (esp. forums and social media where copyright extension is incredibly unlikely). That would be reasonable IMO and sidestep most of the issues people have with LLMs.

I just played through Pony Island and really enjoyed it. It doesn't have much replayability, but it's a unique experience that I think most will enjoy. If you like Doki Doki Literature Club, Undertale or Inscryption (last is the same dev), you'll like this.

I'm going to be picking up The Hex because I've liked the dev's other two games.

[-] sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 54 points 20 hours ago

I didn't have any respect for him before, and now I guess I have disrespect.

48

This is exciting for me because:

  • I model ny taxes in my spreadsheet anyway, so I'm likely to notice a mistake
  • I usually use FreeTaxUSA to file for free, and this means there's one less party to share my personal information with
  • my state's taxes are pretty simple, so I don't need state-specific tax software

I hope this helps simplify things for some people and save a bit of money as well. I'm going to try it out next year.

Do any of you estimate your taxes? Are you interested in trying out this service?

13

Here are just the number for all of you degenerates who just want some milestones for your spreadsheets.

Average total retirement savings by age:

  • <35 - $49,130
  • 35-44 - $141,520
  • 45-54 - $313,220
  • 55-64 - $537,560
  • 65-74 - $609,230
  • =75 - $462,410

Average 401k balance by age:

  • <25 - $5,236
  • 25-34 - $30,017
  • 35-44 - $76,354
  • 45-54 - $142,069
  • 55-64 - $207,874
  • 65 and older - $232,710

And retirement savings targets from various advisors:

Fidelity:

  • 1x by 30
  • 3x by 40
  • 6x by 50
  • 8x by 60
  • 10x by 67

Rowley:

  • 1x by 35
  • 5x by 50
  • 7x by 70

Anyway, do you like metrics like these?

86
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/thefarside@sh.itjust.works

Horse styles of the ’50s

31
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/thefarside@sh.itjust.works

For crying out loud, Jonah! Three days late, covered with slime, and smelling like fish! … And what story have I got to swallow this time?

1
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/thefarside@sh.itjust.works

You know what I’m sayin’? … Me, for example. I couldn’t work in some stuffy little office. … The outdoors just calls to me.

5
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/thefarside@sh.itjust.works

Look! Look, gentlemen! Purple mountains! Spacious skies! Fruited plains! … Is someone writing this down?

2
submitted 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/thefarside@sh.itjust.works

Sure, I’m a creature—and I can accept that … but lately it seems I’ve been turning into a miserable creature.

126

It has been a while since the last one. So...

Tell us what game you are currently, or recently played, greater than 6+ months old.

If the game happens to be on sale, a link would be a plus.

0
submitted 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/networking@sh.itjust.works

I'm going to be overhauling my network over the next few months as I get ready for my new municipal fiber installation. I have a general idea of how to set things up, but I'm not an expert and would appreciate a few extra pairs of eyes in case I'm missing something obvious.

Hardware available:

  • Microtik Routerboard - 5 ports
  • Ubiquiti AP - AC-Lite; plan to add U6+ or U6 Lite once I get faster service
  • some dumb switches

Devices (by logical category; VLANs?):

  • main - computers and phones (Wi-Fi for now, I plan to run cable)
  • media - TVs, gaming consoles, etc
  • DMZ - wired security cameras, Wi-Fi printer (2.4GHz wireless g only)
  • guest - guests, kids computers

Goals:

  • main - outgoing traffic goes through a VPN
  • media - outgoing traffic limited to certain trusted sites; probably no VPN
  • untrusted - cannot access internet, can be accessed from main
  • guest - can only access internet, potentially through a separate VPN from main

Special devices:

  • NAS (Linux box) - can access main, media, and DMZ
  • printer - accessible from main, rest of devices on untrusted don't need to be (I can tunnel through the NAS if needed); can potentially configure a CUPS server on the NAS to route print jobs if needed

Plan:

Router ports:

  1. Internet
  2. WiFi APs
  3. main VLAN
  4. untrusted (VLAN)
  5. unused (or maybe media VLAN)

WiFi SSIDs (currently have a 2.4Ghz and 5Ghz SSIDs):

  1. main VLAN
  2. guest VLAN
  3. untrusted - hidden SSID (mostly for printer) - 2.4GHz only

If the VPN causes issues, I would like the ability to move individual MACs to another VLAN (say, to media, or a separate, usually unused backup VLAN). Not required, just a backup plan in case the VPN causes issues.

This is my first time configuring VLANs, so I'm not really sure what my options are. Also, I'm not super familiar with Mikrotik routers (I'm not a sysadmin or anything, just a hobbyist), I just got fed up with crappy consumer hardware and wanted something a bit more reliable.

Does that sound like a reasonable plan? Is there something I could improve or suggestions you have?

Edit: DMZ is the wrong term, so I replaced it with "untrusted". By that I meant a local-only network, so no Internet access. Ideally I could access these devices from my main network, but they can't initiate connections outside their VLAN. However, that's not necessary, since I can tunnel through my NAS if needed.

1

I like looking at ERN's articles from time to time because they cover so much that I'm all but guaranteed to learn something.

This article is about how, despite the wealth inequality figures, the US is still doing okay when it comes to wealth accumulation. Here are some of my personal highlights from the article:

If I want to put a positive spin on the unpleasant wealth inequality stats in the U.S., I would again point to the net worth chart by age group: Some of our inequality is due to the natural wealth accumulation lifecycle. For example, within my age group (45-49), the wealth Gini coefficient is lower: 0.769. Americans are very good at building assets, thanks to their entrepreneurial spirit and generous tax incentives, like tax-advantaged retirement plans and capital gains deferral.

And later:

It’s also worth pointing out that the Gini coefficient decreased in 2022 and now stands at the lowest level since 2007, though still far above the Gini in the 1990s.

And this is an interesting alternative to some of the rhetoric I'm seeing about the eroding middle class:

If we compare the wealth distribution in 1989 with 2022, most percentiles gained ground. True, the 1%, 5%, and 10% lowest percentile had negative to zero net worth figures. The 1% poorest got deeper into debt. But the middle class is getting richer, albeit modestly slower.

There's a lot here, and my takeaway is that FIRE should continue to be a possibility to the middle class and above. It's not a weird phenomenon that only a lucky few were positioned correctly to achieve, but conditions remain good if you want to put in the work to love below your means and invest consistently.

Anyway, I like looking at graphs and deep analysis like this. Please share your thoughts.

29
submitted 6 months ago* (last edited 6 months ago) by sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works to c/personalfinance@lemmy.ml

Here's an archived version of the page.

What follows is largely a reaction to analysts predicting a recession and giving advice on how to adjust your investing strategy. The TL;DR here is: don't, they get it wrong more than they get it right.

Among PF enthusiasts, there's a saying that goes something like this: analysts have predicted 20 of the last three recessions.

Here's a chart for the S and P 500 long term after inflation. As you'll notice, long downward trends are quite rare, and the general trend is upward. In general, you can expect 6.5-7% long term after taking out inflation (~10% before inflation) if you buy and hold a broad stock market index fund. It seems almost every year someone calls for a recession, and this year is no exception. People were calling for recessions staring in 2015 or so, and look how that turned out.

Finance pundits and blogs like saying outlandish things like "recession will happen this year, liquidate stocks and buy X, Y, and Z," and if you're lucky, they'll throw some fancy charts up to make you think they know what they're talking about. But just know that all of this is for attention, they make money through ads or airtime, and some will try to sell you a book or something. The worst ones do a pump and dump scheme where they'll invest in security X, hype it up, and then sell when there's a bump in prices and average investors are left holding the bag.

Everyone seems to think they have some system for beating the market, but few professional fund managers manage to beat the index they benchmark their fund with, and even fewer can do it consistently:

Across all domestic actively managed equity funds, 88.4% underperformed their respective benchmark over the last 15 years, according to an analysis of the S&P SPIVA report.

...

More than 80% of large-cap funds underperformed the S&P 500 over the last five years. In 2019, 79.98% of large-cap funds underperformed compared to the S&P 500, which was just a hair better than the five-year average.

So if you buy a large cap index fund, you'll do better than 80% of professional fund managers over 5 years, and you'll outperform nearly 90% of them over 15 years. So don't listen to their nonsense about changing allocation during a recession (or even whether there will be a recession) because you're statistically better off ignoring it.

To really drive it home, let's look at the linked article about Betty, the world's most unlucky investor, who invested only at the worst possible times (just before every major recession) since the 1980s:

Even though she picked the worst six moments since the 1980s in which to invest, she made an average profit over the next five years of 20% and an average profit over 10 years of 100%. She doubled her money. Despite her disastrous, terrible timing, she was in the black after five years on four occasions out of six, and in the black after 10 years 10 times out of 10.

Today, even though her total cash costs from those six investments totaled just $3,500, her portfolio is worth $17,500. That’s more than five times her investment. And that’s even factoring in losses this year, which have seen the global stock market — and Betty’s portfolio — fall 22%.

Just think of how much better she could've done if she had invested consistently, which means she would've bought at the lows and middles instead of just the highs.

If you instead listen to the pundits, you're likely to buy high (you'll miss the bottom, I guarantee it) and sell low (you'll sell early or late). Do what has worked well historically and buy and hold a diversified portfolio.

I don't know if a recession is coming, but I do know it'll change nothing about my investing strategy, other than perhaps how much I can invest. If you're nervous about the economy, make sure your emergency fund is funded and stay the course with your investing strategy, whatever your desired asset allocation is.

22

I was doing a little EOY accounting, and I wanted to see where I could afford to retire to with my current amount of investments. I searched a bit, but couldn't find anything good, and then I remembered the old /r/financialindependence sidebar.

Since I happen to be a mod, I went ahead and abused my mod powers and added it to the community info here. My wife is from another country, and we're not yet to the point where we could retire there, but we're surprisingly close, so I now have a new milestone to shoot for.

I don't know the methodology they use here, or how often it's updated, but I think it's fun to look around at options.

I remember another site that simply gave a list of countries in order from cheapest to most expensive and you'd enter your current assets and figure out where you could go. I thought it was a lot of fun to see what "upgrades" an extra year or two of working would get me, but I didn't bookmark it. If anyone can find something like that, please post it.

Anyone considering going expat? If so, does this resource seem accurate? Do you have others you like better?

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sugar_in_your_tea

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