I know the talking heads are saying that because DJT is a first time offender, he will likely not be incarcerated. But then the sentencing judge is Merchan, the same one who handed Trump $10,000 in fines for violating his gag order. And what he said when doing so is the interesting part:
"Because this is now the 10th time that this Court has found Defendant in criminal contempt, spanning three separate motions, it is apparent that monetary fines have not and will not, suffice to deter Defendant from violating this Court's lawful orders."
Given that the judge is cognizant that fines mean nothing to DJT, perhaps he will wish to sanction him by other means. That could mean imprisonment. But not before the election. Trump will surely appeal the verdict, avoiding any immediate consequences until well after November 5th. If there's one thing Trump is good at, it's delaying tactics. Thankfully, he will not be able to pardon himself if elected. Only the Governor of NY can do that.
Trump's conviction isn't going to be the big turning point of this election. What happens after his conviction will. If he continues to spew vitriol about the judge, prosecution, and jury, eventually one of his followers will commit an act of retribution. That puts Trump in a difficult spot, because his core likes this kind of stuff. He will want to show his support, but if he does, it will again show he encourages domestic terrorism. If he does anything other than condemn the attack, his support among moderates will fall away, just like it did after Jan. 6th. If he does condemn the attack, his core may protest, like they did when he changed his opinion on the COVID vaccines.