Worst case scenario is nuclear anhilation
Best case scenario, imperial core military gets spanked so hard there's no one left to fight revolutionaries
Insane shit
indeed
there’s no one left to fight revolutionaries
Domestically you mean? Because there's still police, national guard, secret service, various special forces that aren't deployed, FBI, etc
True but imo that's a lot less scary, at least for Europe. The police can't bear to fight on equal grounds, whenever they don't feel like they can safely bully people they quit. It happened with the Yellow Vest movement, despite them being disorganised and mostly non violent.
Do EU countries have an analogue to national guard? French have Gendermerie and the foreign legion, what about the rest?
Poland have WOT - Territorial Defence Force (although the polish acronym read in english is surprisingly accurate) - formation that was intended to be PiS private army, but as every single military endeavour of any Polish government after 1989 it failed its purpose and is currently made of 15 light infantry brigades with no heavier support. Considering how they are getting shat on by the professional soldiers, they are basically bodies with guns. Or, as Witcher book and game would put it:
Some more hits from wiki about them:
The creation of the Polish TDF relates to the reforms in the Baltic states' Territorial Defence Forces to provide response during the early stages of a hybrid conflict.[8]
So yeah, just a bodies with guns
The re-creation of the Territorial Defence Force was first announced in 2015 in reaction to the war in Donbass and concern that Poland's existing military would be ill-equipped to confront an adversary under similar conditions of low-intensity conflict.
Current state of Polish military is summarised here as: being afraid of Donbas militia.
TDF was declared the successor to the traditions of the Home Army National Command (1942–1945) of the Second World War, while being the de facto successor to the heritage of its forebears.
Reminder that Home Army en masse did next to nothing during entire war, their biggest action was needless and disastrous Warsaw uprising. So actually pretty fitting.
Besides responding to external military threats, the WOT will, according to the Defense Ministry, help strengthen Poland's "patriotic and Christian foundations".[15]
🤡
Although Russia says there are over 3,100 mercenaries in Ukraine, these newly arriving troops are not mercenaries. They are in uniform, home country proclaimed via insignia. They mostly are concentrated in the western part of the country, although in some cases they are close to the actual fighting in the east.
According to this there are already NATO troops in Ukraine. Any more sources on this? I don't remember hearing about it to such a degree before.
US special forces were there since at least 22, recently some military engineers were sent over as well to build to Ukr. fortifications. Minor vassals will popably also sent units.
May NATO be exhausted! And may the Western Financial Bubble burst!
Barring the potential, albeit low, threat of nuclear holocaust, because, as always, that's not worth thinking about...
Nice. More dead NATO specialists.
So they're escalating? This isn't good.
they are getting desperate
Let it be known that ww3 will start in for real soon
I really hope you are wrong and/or just being facetious, and I hope my copy paste will help at least somewhat:
I’m highly skeptical that this conflict would go nuclear. It’s unfortunately always a possibility, and people, especially Amerikkkan imperialists nutjobs, can and will do stupid things without thinking about the actions of their consequences, but my two-fold thinking is that not only is nuclear-war really unlikely to happen (or way less than most people think) I think it would very likely also be less destructive, depending on how things go.
People always imagine that in a nuclear war scenario, all bets are off, but I don’t think so. There is usually some sense, even in chaos.
Most or all of the most devastating nuclear weapons were disarmed several decades ago, and the most powerful nuclear weapons today would be able to destroy or damage large cities, even at the most. And yes, there are thousands of nuclear weapons.
But due to the decreased potency of even the strongest nuclear weapons, and there still being a very finite number, even the capitalists probably understand that an irradiated world would be a terrible place to lord over, even if you survive.
Nuclear weapons would most likely and would best be used to damage, delay and destroy military and industrial centers, and with how interconnected the world is now because of the internet, gps, cell phones, and supply chains, a country would be way less likely to get involved in combat when it’s industrial bases, bourgeois palaces and military-intelligence strongholds are utterly demolished, out of basic resources and power and labor, things would resolve relatively quickly, pacifying countries out of a fight with relatively few deaths, since there is no point in launching weapons at massive populations centers if it can be helped, since it would just invite more war, death, destruction, disease, sadness, vengeance, danger.
I can’t speak for the Global North, but I find it hard to believe that those launching nuclear weapons would just shoot them everywhere all over the place at civilians, that would be ridiculously stupid, even in an extreme scenario, all but signing the death warrant of the human species, and targeting civilian and food storehouses and infrastructure would be worse than pointless, it would be stupid.
I think/hope/imagine that if or when NATO is stupid enough to use nuclear weapons, that China, Russia, Iran, Palestine and the DPRK would already be 20 steps ahead, they have been planning for this for decades.
China and Russia’s advanced and partially automated and augmented defense systems would scramble, hack into, shut down, disable, redirect, or outright destroy or prevent nuclear missile launches. Drones would hack into and shut down facilities or weapons themselves. Infrastructure could be shielded and damage minimized in various ways, and supply chains are something that Global South understands intuitively more than the Global North.
I hope it never comes to it, but I think a potential World War 3 would be mostly conventional warfare, and even if it isn’t, a nuclear war wouldn’t mean the death of all or even most of humanity (hopefully) and things would resolve in the Global South’s and socialism’s favor no matter what.
I hope its mostly conventional warfare too, but WW3 at least in my mind has started or will start soon, I dont see any way NATO would be willing to de-escalate, this situation or any other situation. I do hope I am wrong but I fear that I am not
Article says "advisors", so its gonna be a mix of special forces doing front line recon/spotting with limited fighting, instructors for the wizz bang shit, maintenance crews for the wizz bang shit, and more liaisons for intelligence/logistics between Ukraine and EU countries.
Not enough for front line fighting or reinforcing the rear. Nobody's going to commit to large scale troop deployments until after the USA elections at the earliest, probably just hoping REALLY HARD that something unexpected happens that drastically changes the painting already splashed on the wall.
I think they were hoping that Ukraine could last till the elections, but it's starting to look like the lines are already cracking.
When is the yankee election? November?
First Tuesday in November usually
So around six months to go? Tbh I don't see AFU capitulating in this period
I wouldn't be too sure that AFU can hold on for another six months. Once the collapse starts it accelerates very quickly. We may be in the early stages of this right now. The panic in western media suggests that the situation is very bad for Ukraine.
I'll be honest and say that I didn't actually expect them to go for it. The empire has gone completely insane at this point
This wouldn't trigger article 4 right? That's only if Russia decided to bomb them unprovoked?
Oh we are gonna die fr fr 🫠
If there is a direct war between NATO and Russia then it will almost certainly will go nuclear.
They are really hellbent on nuclear warfare, huh? I know it’s still too early but every escalation NATO makes it just keeps pushing towards the use of nukes. I don’t know what the end goal here is but it’s not looking good. I’d rather not die, thanks.
NATO leadership painted themselves into a corner politically, and they just might do insane things at this point.
NATO leaders can feel free to join the battle themselves, by all means please do. But maybe don’t drag the rest of us with you.
Leaders used to go to war, when did that change?
We would sure have a lot less war if that practice remained, now it's just the rich sending the poor to fight their wars.
You almost triggered my reflex to downvote whenever I see Ollongren
ha
Don't expect them to fight. They're probably going to reinforce the Ukrainian rear, so Ukraine can free more manpower and send more Ukrainians to die against Russia.
Problem is that Ukraine is running out of trained soldiers, and conscripts they kidnap of the street simply can't hold the line. So, either the west lets the line collapse or they have to start putting boots on the ground.
Yes, but those boots on the ground won't be fighting Russians. They'll stay in the West of Ukraine, so that those Ukrainian soldiers get sent to the frontlines.
But that's what I'm saying, there aren't many troops left to send from west of Ukraine.
Iirc they even stripped everything from all other borders leaving only skeleton crew, despite constantly fearmongering about Russian troops attacking from Transnistria or Belarus.
Indeed, and apparently they've been stripping the border guard down even more recently because they need troops to stop the collapse that's unfolding. The west sending a few thousand troops wouldn't make any difference. It would have to be in hundreds of thousands to actually matter.
Entire EU combined have below 2 million military personnel, which means that most likely not even half are combat-worthy. AFU already lost more people than that in the last two years (counting all kind of loss).
Of course EU have much more potential recruits than that, but i imagine how popular that kind of draft would be, if possible at all.
Even if it was, you can't just grab people off the street and throw them into combat. It takes like a year to do basic military training. Part of the reason AFU is currently collapsing is because it's increasingly filled with conscripts who don't want to fight and don't have the skills necessary. On the flip side, Russian army is seasoned and motivated.
How long until some of them get found out and hit by cruise missiles though?
Even if they "don't fight" they are still targets. And from what Russia has said, they are likely big targets.
this is insane.