How can Apple got this wrong? Pretty much all meteorological data are sourced from the same set of weather forecasting data produced from running weather simulations on weather agencies supercomputers using satellites and ground observation data. The forecasting models will pretty much produce almost similar results when fed with the same data, which is why weather reports are usually pretty similar even though they're produced by different weather agencies.

Does Apple actually run their own weather simulations here? Probably for their hyper local next-hour weather prediction feature? Or could it be that Apple is using some "AI" for their weather forecasting and the AI conjured some number out of its ass instead of running full physics simulation?

I've noticed the same thing. I was somewhat optimistic about Apple's purchase of DarkSky and planned integration of DarkSky technology into Apple Weather. I mean, DarkSky was awesome. Surely, DarkSky technology + Apple's resources would result in the ultimate weather app! Boy, was I wrong. Apple obviously took a wrong turn somewhere because the new and improved Apple Weather is anything but.

“Meteorologists aren’t in agreement on how to measure the Probability of Precipitation, aka that little percentage of rain on your weather app. Some use a formula for it — PoP = C x A, where C stands for confidence and A stands for area. So if there’s a 50% chance of rain in 80% of a given area, your probability of rain becomes 40%.

More commonly, meteorologists measure PoP as the chance of rain at any given point in the area they cover during a certain period of time. This is the definition closest to the official definition from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).”

Source: https://www.tasteofhome.com/article/percent-chance-of-rain/

It’s likely Apple does something unique in how they calculate their percentages. It could legit be a fault in how they source their weather data but knowing more about the actual equation might be helpful in seeing if everyone is actually measuring the same thing, the same way.

Especially for last few months. Rain was pouring like hell whole morning, and app was like "mostly cloudy".

It is pretty bad I see this often too.

I’ve been using https://mobile.weather.gov since DarkSky died and it’s much better than Apple Weather for my area. The radar is way faster loading as well.

Same thing in my country. The app says 0% rain today and next days with good weather but it hasn’t stopped heavy raining for hours.

The national Weather service has predicted rain for today during all week so it’s not something out of the blue.

Oh hi fellow space city weather reader. I thought apple weather would get better after supposedly integrating the Dark Sky features in there, but it seems like there’s still a few kinks to work out.

We lost DarkSky for this?

I wish there was a way to turn off predictive radar. It sometimes has the storm completely changing direction. So inaccurate.

Interestingly enough, in the UK it seems to be as accurate- maybe a bit more as both the Met Office and BBC Weather. It's now my preferred app.

Is this even a localized problem or all throughout the US/World? I'm in southeast Texas, USA.

For Canadians, I recommend Environment Canada’s WeatherCAN. It’s made by the department of Environment and Climate Change. It’s got some bugs here and there, but, most importantly to me, I find that it’s actually accurate.

https://apps.apple.com/ca/app/weathercan/id1334221563