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Following Beijing’s 6 January 2026 announcement of tightened export controls on Japan, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce published two lists on 24 February, each naming 20 Japanese firms. Firms in the first group face an immediate ban on the export of dual-use goods deemed by China to be ‘participating in enhancing Japan’s military capabilities’. The other 20 firms belong to a watchlist mandating individual export applications.
These actions constitute the most recent measures in Beijing’s campaign to punish Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for her comment in November 2025 that China’s military action against Taiwan could create a ‘survival-threatening situation’ for Japan.
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On one hand, China’s economic coercion has complicated Japan’s growth strategy, which is central to Takaichi’s policy goals. Supply uncertainty or price hikes in critical minerals including rare earth elements (REEs) pose significant concern for the high-tech sectors that Takaichi’s administration is eager to boost.
On the other hand, these actions do not only make conservative politicians like Takaichi gain more domestic popularity, but they also incentivise Tokyo to devise a middle-power coalition for more robust supply chains that rely less — or possibly not at all — on China.
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