That's kind of wild given the global tailwinds that literally every other energy exporter is experiencing. Wonder why they're having such a horrible time?
this post was submitted on 06 Mar 2026
40 points (100.0% liked)
World News
1874 readers
667 users here now
Rules:
Be a decent person.
No racism, sexism, ableism, homophobia, transphobia, zionism/nazism, and so on.
Other Great Communities:
Rules
Be excellent to each other
founded 1 year ago
MODERATORS
I am no expert, but these are my guesses:
- Exporting energy, in many cases, involves the movement of physical goods. Global shipping has become riskier (and therefore more expensive) because of the deteriorating geopolitical situation.
- Once a country installs renewable energy capacity, that capacity stays forever and essentially never degrades. Who's ever heard of a wind farm getting torn down? Renewable energy such as hydroelectricity, solar, and wind are getting cheaper and cheaper by the year as technology improves, making it an attractive alternative to fossil fuels.
- Countries are starting to become more cognizant of their energy sovereignty. Developing domestic energy production is now an important national security concern worldwide. Nobody can shut off your sunlight, your rivers, or your coal mines, but unfriendly neighbours can threaten to cut off your supply of imported oil or natural gas.
- Many large exporters of fossil fuels happen to be on the receiving end of geopolitical turmoil. Russia is still balls-deep in shit in Ukraine and their biggest customers (China and India) are demanding discounts as a result of the international reaction to that. Venezuela just had its president kidnapped. Iran and the UAE are being bombed to smithereens by American and Israeli ordnance.
In addition to other comments: Russia is definitely an energy exporting country, but Russian oil is sold at a discount mainly due to the Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine. This includes a price cap introduced by European Union that has been lowering the price to $44.10 per barrel since February 1. When the price for crude increased this weak to more than $80, Russia didn't benefit.
A calculation by Reuters also suggests that the situation will further strain Russia's budget:
State coffers have been drained by heavy defence and security spending since Russia began its military campaign in Ukraine in February 2022 ... The price of Russia's Urals oil basket would need to climb by more than 50% from 3,582 roubles ($46.13) per barrel , which was reached on March 2 in order to meet the budgeted levels.
Russia's budget for 2026 assumes an oil price of 5,440 roubles per barrel, or $59, and a rouble rate of 92.2 per U.S. dollar.
Conversely, assuming stable oil prices, the rouble should weaken to 117.5 per $1 for the budget to be balanced from around 77.65 currently.
Kirill Tremasov, adviser to the [Russian] central bank governor, said on Saturday that the central bank did not expect the rouble to crumble, while the oil rally could be short-lived.