In 2025, China’s new and reactivated coal power project proposals surged to a record high, while capacity additions that came online reached the highest annual level in a decade, even as clean energy put China’s CO2 emissions into reverse for the first time and drove down coal power generation.
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TL;DR:
- 2025 saw China’s current coal power build-out cycle reach a new high. Coal power capacity additions reached their highest level in a decade, even as coal power generation declined, and clean energy met all net growth in power demand.
- New and reactivated coal power project proposals surged to a record high. If built, the projects proposed in just this one year would commit China to years of coal expansion beyond power demand growth and climate requirements, reflecting a rush by the coal industry stakeholders to advance projects ahead of tighter policy constraints.
- With a large pipeline of projects still under construction and permitted, rapid growth of coal power capacity risks extending into the early years of the 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period, while coal power retirements remain low.
- Meeting China’s 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) target implies a shift away from baseload coal power and a decline in operating hours. Yet coal capacity commissioned in 2025, and much of the remaining pipeline, remains dominated by large units designed for high-utilisation, reflecting incentives that favour energy and capacity over flexibility.