cross-posted from: https://lemmy.zip/post/57287888

cross-posted from: https://hexbear.net/post/7373467

cross-posted from: https://news.abolish.capital/post/20489

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was never just an act of war. It cracked the facade of regional stability, exposed the fault lines of power, and accelerated the pull into four contending poles now reshaping West Asia.

Until recently, regional developments in West Asia could still be parsed through the old frameworks of isolated conflicts, bilateral rivalries, or proxy skirmishes. No longer.

Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on 7 October 2023 was a strategic rupture that reset the rules of deterrence, legitimacy, and the acceptable use of force. Since that day, West Asia has transformed into a single, hyper-connected battlespace where borders blur, fronts overlap, and crises no longer unfold in isolation.

Everything since 7 October has operated within a new strategic equation. Major powers have scrambled to adjust their priorities, allies and adversaries have redrawn their lines, and familiar arrangements have begun to fray.

The usual safeguards – diplomatic cover, economic pressure valves, even military deterrents – have eroded. The region is no longer a patchwork of separate flashpoints, but a volatile system where any single spark – a border incident, trade maneuver, or diplomatic shift – can trigger a chain reaction. What we are witnessing is the active remaking of the region’s balance of power, in real time

Four axes, no hegemon

At the heart of this transformation is the emergence of four distinct centers of power: Iran, Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, and the Israeli occupation state. Each commands influence across multiple domains, but none has been able to translate that into uncontested dominance. Instead, the region is pulled between four gravitational fields, each shaping alliances, conflicts, and narratives.

Iran and Saudi Arabia wield energy resources that extend their reach beyond West Asia. Iran also commands loyalty from Shia populations and maintains long-standing partnerships with resistance movements.

Turkiye and Iran are large, populous states with deep historical imperial roots, strategic geography, and expansive militaries. Saudi Arabia – and, to a lesser extent, Turkiye – also possess significant soft power, rooted in religious and cultural legitimacy. Israel, for its part, remains a military and technological leader, backed by a “special relationship” with Washington and an unconfirmed nuclear arsenal.

None of these powers, however, holds all the cards. Their simultaneous rise has prevented the emergence of a regional hegemon. Instead, they check each other’s advances in an unstable balance shaped by history, ideology, and ambition.

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