Roger Seheult, MD of MedCram explains why flu deaths are predictable every year, and some lesser known treatment options.
He is Board Certified in Internal Medicine, Pulmonary Disease, Critical Care, and Sleep Medicine and an Associate Professor at the University of California, Riverside School of Medicine.
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Surveillance, timing, and predictability
- Influenza deaths rise and fall in a consistent seasonal pattern.
- Peak weekly influenza deaths occur about 1–3 weeks after the shortest day of the year.
- Southern hemisphere timing mirrors the northern hemisphere; Australian peaks occur about 1–3 weeks after June 21.
- UK surveillance values at the timepoint shown: influenza A positivity 0.5%, influenza B positivity 0.1%, all influenza positivity 1.9%, influenza hospital admissions 0.6 per 100,000, influenza deaths 0.0 per 100,000.
Latitude and solar exposure relationships
- Latitude alignment matches the seasonal rise and fall of influenza and influenza-like illness.
- A Europe-wide timing relationship is tied to the day when UVB falls below 34% of equatorial UVB; correlative constant 0.9993.
- Temperature and humidity are not aligned with the timing relationship in the Europe analysis segment shown.
Sunlight, influenza, and pandemic timing example
- Higher sunlight is associated with lower influenza incidence in the US sunlight analysis segment shown.
- The fall 2009 H1N1 period is the main driver in the sunlight–influenza relationship segment shown.
- 2009 influenza activity increased in late summer/early fall despite warmer ambient temperatures.
Solar radiation and COVID-19 mortality relationship
- Higher solar radiation is associated with lower COVID-19 mortality in US, England, and Italy in the segment shown.
- The COVID-19 mortality association is independent of a vitamin D pathway in the segment shown.
N-acetylcysteine (NAC) trial result
- A 262-subject multicenter randomized placebo-controlled trial used NAC 600 mg twice daily for 6 months.
- Among infected participants in the trial segment shown: symptomatic illness 25% with NAC vs 79% with placebo.
- NAC is over-the-counter in the segment shown.
- Influenza kills tens of thousands of people in the United States in the segment shown.
References
- Attenuation of influenza-like symptomatology and improvement of cell-mediated immunity with long-term N-acetylcysteine treatment — https://doi.org/10.1183/09031936.97.10071535
- Sunlight and Protection Against Influenza — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2020.100942
- Ultraviolet A radiation and COVID-19 deaths in the USA with replication studies in England and Italy — https://doi.org/10.1111/bjd.20093
- Autumn COVID-19 surge dates in Europe correlated to latitudes, not to temperature-humidity, pointing to vitamin D as contributing factor — https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-81419-w
- Influenza-associated mortality in Australia, 2010 through 2019: High modelled estimates in 2017 — https://doi.org/10.1016/j.vaccine.2021.11.019
- A geographical approach to the development of hypotheses relating to Covid-19 death rates — https://doi.org/10.32794/mr112500132 ... Server is misconfigured, but it should get fixed "eventually"
- Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report: Key Updates for Week 53, ending January 3, 2026 (CDC) — https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/surveillance/2025-week-53.html
- National flu and COVID-19 surveillance report: 8 January 2026 (UK) — https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2025-to-2026-season/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-report-8-january-2026-week-2
