cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/45326699
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Vladimir Putin’s war has upended security and defence across the continent, and as the European Union and Nato dig in for a fourth year of fighting, senior officials have a message for countries around the globe [...]: war in Europe has made conflict in the Indo-Pacific more likely – and countries including Australia need to be better prepared.
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The EU is working on plans for a “drone wall” defence system, something the 27-country bloc wants to stem growing incursions. Russia has persistently targeted Ukrainian regions using drones and missiles to take out energy and port infrastructure.
Andrius Kubilius, the former Lithuanian prime minister turned EU defence chief, says member states have been too slow to recognise the threat posed by drone warfare. Kubilius, who will help guide a new defence and security partnership between the EU and the Albanese government, has urged countries – including Australia – to rapidly scale up capability.
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“It’s very important for us to understand that what we now call provocations with drones can be a new type of warfare,” [Andrius Kubilius, the former Lithuanian prime minister turned EU defence chief] says.
“You don’t need always to send tanks or artillery through the border to occupy territory. But you can really terrorise neighbouring countries or countries further away with drones, disturbing strategic infrastructure and how it can operate or not operate.”
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“Russia is not the only source of negative things in the world. While close for us is Moscow, we see it in a much broader context and you cannot avoid naming China," says Australian Vice Admiral Justin Jones.
While Russia tests Nato’s collective defence clause, known as article five, through a diverse range of tactics, Poland's Lieutenant General Maciej Klisz says the weaponisation of maritime routes and targeting of strategic assets could be replicated by other countries, including in the Indo-Pacific. Defence officials in Australia last month tracked a Chinese flotilla which was headed towards Australia, less than a year after a naval task group sparked alarm when it unexpectedly circumnavigated the country. It has since left the region but the federal government expects more attention from Beijing.
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Poland could join the massive Talisman Sabre military exercise in Australia, designed to test and improve combat readiness and interoperability with overseas forces, including the United States. Both countries are also part of the F35 stealth fighter jet network of countries. Some of the planes, also known as the Joint Strike Fighter, are due at Łask early this year.
Klisz welcomes Australia’s involvement in the coalition of the willing, countries pledging support for Ukraine during and after the war.
“This cooperation between Poland and Australia, even though we are far away by geography, is growing stronger,” he says.
China’s involvement in the war, along with North Korea and Iran, is concerning European leaders. Robert Kupiecki, Poland’s undersecretary of state and security advisor to the country’s prime minister, says international security is so closely connected that EU members should foster strong ties with Australia.
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[Marc Abensour, a career diplomat who leads France’s Indo-Pacific engagement] says managing tensions and avoiding conflict should be a key goal, including around Taiwan and the Korean peninsula. France’s explicit rejection of “spheres of influence” foreshadows a possible split with Trump, whose administration has cited protection of the Western hemisphere as part of its move to arrest Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in a special forces operation this week.
“After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we have all been confronted by increased strategic disinhibition,” Abensour says. “That has a global impact and it is not limited to the European theatre.”