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Russia's ability to carry out hybrid attacks suffered a setback in 2022 when European countries expelled spies operating under diplomatic cover. Now, Russia is actively rebuilding that capability and employing new tactics, [research fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security Marek] Kohv said.
"Russia is now recruiting people with criminal backgrounds as well as ordinary people on social media," the research fellow said.
Kohv said the damage caused by individuals recruited in this way is often significantly greater than that done by traditional spies.
"These people generally lack specialized training in firearms or explosives. When people without knowledge of explosives set fire to certain targets, the damage to civilians โ casualties and injuries โ can be significantly higher," he said.
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"Very, very often these recruited individuals do not actually know they're working for Russian intelligence services, and in such cases a trial can be more complicated because it might not be possible to prove a direct connection with Russian special services," the researcher said.
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[Igor Gretskiy, another research fellow at the International Center for Defense and Security] said European countries are now significantly more aware of the threats emanating from Russia.
"At the beginning of the year, it would have been unthinkable for someone to suggest shooting down aircraft violating a country's airspace. Now, that is no longer off the table," he said.
"Threat perception is key, because Russia knows very well that a portion of Europe's political elite fears escalation, Russia is a nuclear power, and so on. Putin is clearly aware of this and exploits it. That is why he keeps raising the stakes. I predict that next year we'll hear more nuclear blackmail messages from Russia. Russian authorities have always done this in extreme situations, trying to seize the initiative," Gretskiy outlined.
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