50% odds to 2.3 C...
Yeah, the end of century estimates have been flirting with 3 C for a while. 2.3 is pretty terrible but that seems conserva-
...by 2040

All those articles about that MIT study in the 70's that supposedly predicted the collapse of industrial civilization by the early 2040's are starting to seem a little spooky. Learn to pickle, stock up on solar panels while they're cheap, and find some good farmland at a high latitude, I guess.
Honestly they might be more doomer then I am.