If the same geopolitical environment still led to World War II but with a different German leader then the outcome of the war could very well have ended differently.
Leading up to major invasions like D-Day in Normandy and the invasion of Sicily the allies implemented major deceptions to confuse the Germans. Despite some senior leadership recognizing at least some aspects of those deceptions, Hitler himself fell for them pretty thoroughly and ordered troop movements that reduced German defenses where the attacks took place, and delayed moving them back because he still believed the deceptions were real. There are other examples of poor decisions by Hitler throughout the course of the war that proved helpful for the allies as well.
If Germany had a more qualified military leader running things then events like the Normandy D-Day invasion could have had a very different outcome. If the Germans had the Normandy beaches better defended then that invasion could very well have failed. And if that happened then there’s a good chance Germany could have won the war.